Out of The Frying Pan: Coronavirus Arrives in Syria

On Sunday, the Minister of Health of the Syrian Government, Nizar Yazji, announced that the first case of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) had been detected in Syria. Yazji told reporters that the carrier, a woman who allegedly came from Lebanon, was asymptomatic and the virus was detected during her arrival upon which she was placed under quarantine. Yazji assured the public that all “necessary measures” are being taken to confront the outbreak.

The news, although significant, was hardly surprising. All of Syria’s neighbours, Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan, had cases of the virus in recent weeks. Furthermore, two of Damascus’s main allies, Iran and China, have been epicentres of the outbreak, with Iran still struggling to contain the transmission of the virus. Indeed, many observers have noted that it was unrealistic for Syria to have evaded the virus for so long. In the lead-up to the announcement, there had been persistent rumours that the virus had been spreading among Iranian-affiliated militias in Deir ez-Zour, across refugee camps in Idlib and in major Government-held cities such as Damascus, Tartous and Aleppo. With the confirmation that the virus is in Syria, there will likely be more cases being reported across the country. Already, the Minister of Health for the Opposition’s Syrian Interim Government (SIG), Maram al-Sheikh, announced that one person from Afrin and two people from the Atmeh Refugee Camp in northern Idlib have been put under quarantine on suspicion of being infected.

Experts have long agreed that the arrival of the virus in Syria would be disastrous. The country’s health system, once one of the best in the region, has been teetering near collapse as a result of the war and the resultant destruction of facilities, as well as the shortage of medicine, staff and equipment ranging from ventilators to protective gear

Furthermore, the country is home to a disproportionately large population of poor and displaced people, many of whom with no access to sterile environments or healthcare on a normal basis. Idlib, in particular, is densely populated with people displaced from other parts of the country living in squalid conditions that are ideal for the spread of the virus. The abundance of ungoverned spaces, especially in eastern Syria, makes the outbreak even riskier.

Luckily, authorities across Syria seem to recognise the dangers posed by the outbreak. In the lead-up to the outbreak, authorities in nearly every part of the country had already started implementing restrictions to entries and exits, suspending public gathering spots, schools and sports games, enacting sterilisation campaigns in public buildings and restricting public transport. Following the confirmation of the outbreak, these measures were further tightened. The Syrian Government announced that it would shut down all its crossings and suspend air traffic to and from Syria. Both the SIG and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AA) enacted curfews. In the SIG, the curfew appears to have been implemented in response to scenes from major cities such as al-Bab where public spaces remained busy over the weekend despite warnings from officials.

The most lacklustre response came from the region that is perhaps most vulnerable to it: Idlib. The Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), based in Idlib City and supported by Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), increased prices on various goods such as bread as part of “sterilisation and cleaning fees” but has not implemented any shut-downs including of mosques, which, according to activists, were full during last week’s Friday prayers. Activists also reported hard-line fundamentalist militants expressing lack of concern about the spread of the virus. From Iran to the United States, experience has shown that underestimating the virus and failing to close public spaces has been a fatal mistake. With many healthcare facilities under SSG control already operating at limited capacity owing to heavy bombardments, the region stands to lose the most, should the outbreak spread.

Geopolitics has also been a determinant for the response to the outbreak. Although internationally isolated and suffering from a severe economic crisis, the Syrian Government has had support from Russia and China to enact stronger monitoring mechanisms, and retains enough recognition to solicit support from the World Health Organisation (WHO). Damascus also solicited for sanctions relief to help deal with the crisis. In a surprising move, US President, Donald Trump, announced last week that he wanted to work with Damascus to secure the release of Austin Tice, a journalist who went missing in 2012, and said that the US would show its appreciation for Tice’s release. It is possible that the two sides may leverage this development for some relief. However, in light of Washington tightening sanctions on Iran despite the outbreak, this is unlikely.

In contrast, the SIG’s Minister of Health expressed frustration that the WHO has not launched any of its programmes, including a testing program in refugee camps in Idlib and Aleppo, despite plans having been in the works over the past month. Although Turkey will likely support the SIG as well, the outbreak in Turkey is severely testing its own capacities.

The AA, meanwhile, has had even less support despite its close but increasingly-strained ties with Washington. Health officials in the region warned that there are very few ventilators and other equipment to help sick people, adding that the region does not even have testing kits. Both Damascus and Moscow could gain local support by providing the region with such equipment. However, activists say that such support has not materialised. It would appear that despite proclamations of senior Kurdish officials, such as Ilham Ahmed, that the crisis could be an opportunity for Syrians to work together, partisan interests still define the response to the crisis, and the extent of cooperation.

Another geopolitical factor is whether the outbreak will have a major impact on Iranian activities. Since the outbreak struck Iran, there have been persistent rumours of the disease spreading in eastern Syria, carried by Iranian-backed fighters. The fact that several high-ranking Iranian military officials fell ill from the disease has also spurred these rumours. In Washington, there appears to be a hope that the outbreak in both Syria and Iran could compel Tehran to redirect its resources from Syria to containing the disease, ultimately leading to an Iranian withdrawal. US and Israeli officials will likely seek such an outcome via sanctions and airstrikes. They may also link Damascus’s request for sanctions relief to the removal of Iranian-backed forces, perhaps even stoking Damascus’s suspicion towards Tehran for the emergence of the outbreak in Syria. Tehran, however, is unlikely to withdraw its forces yet, barring significant new developments in Iran itself or otherwise assurances that its Syrian allies – Syrian Hezbollah and other local militias – can carry forward its cause without need for direct involvement.

ISIS remains another factor. Although the group has advised its militants to avoid outbreak areas, it has also been open about its jubilation that the industrialised nations around the world are undergoing such a crisis. The group will certainly try and use the outbreak and the redirection of resources to expand its reach, weaken security measures and free its militants and their families being held in places like al-Hol Refugee Camp. Already, this weekend saw a smuggling attempt in the camp in which a number of ISIS women and their children tried to escape the camp was busted. Such attempts could backfire on the militants amidst rumours of the virus spreading in al-Hol itself. However, the risk of infected militants deliberately spreading the virus can be expected from a group that has already shown suicide attackers as its favoured method.

There is no doubt that Syria is in for a difficult path forward, especially coming on the heels of a ten-year conflict. It is positive that the country’s many governments, perhaps with the exception of the SSG, have taken the crisis seriously and implemented precautions. However, political, geopolitical, structural and economical obstacles will hamper the efforts to confront the virus which will find ample room to spread in the country’s ungoverned, destitute and overpopulated spaces.