Is ISIS Taking Advantage of the Coronavirus Crisis in Northern Syria?

On Sunday (29th March), the spokesperson for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mustafa Bali, announced that ISIS militants at the Sina’a prison in Ghweran, Hasakah, began rioting and tearing down the walls and doors on the first floor of the prison. According to Bali, some managed to escape. The SDF’s anti-terror forces (HAT) were immediately dispatched to the scene to bring the situation under control and to hunt down the escapees. The International Coalition also stated that it provided aerial surveillance assistance geared towards the search operation.

North Press Agency, which is affiliated with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AA) and the SDF, reported that four ISIS militants managed to escape from the prison. The news agency then reported on Monday (30th March) that the Internal Security Forces (Asayish) managed to arrest the four escapees. Mazloum Abdi, the commander-in-chief of the SDF, tweeted late on Monday night that his organisation has been able to “avoid catastrophe and take control”, adding that no prisoners escaped. Another spokesperson for the SDF, Kino Gabriel, stated that HAT had successfully quelled the upheaval and that all detainees are currently in the prison.

Despite claims by the SDF officials that a state of calm had returned to the prison, reports circulated of a second break-out attempt by the ISIS prisoners. A local journalist told The Associated Press that gunshots continued to be heard from inside the prison and that ambulances were evacuating wounded individuals. The Rojava Information Center tweeted on Monday that the situation was still live and not resolved, while also reporting instances of gunfire and the presence of ambulances at the scene.

There has been debate as to whether the riot was sparked by fears related to the recent spread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) in Syria, which has thus far reported ten confirmed cases and two deaths. A commander of the SDF, Mervan Qamishlo, told The Independent that the SDF does not believe that the demands of the rioters are directly related to the spread of COVID-19, as is currently the case in several prisons across the Middle East, and that the loss of control is related to the large number of prisoners and the low capacity of the security forces to manage the prisons. The Rojava Information Center, however, claims that there is a direct link.

Another matter of debate concerns the question of exactly who instigated the riot. The Rojava Information Center has stated that the upper levels of the prison mostly hold Syrian ISIS militants. Reports from Sunday suggest that the rioting took place on the first floor, meaning that foreign ISIS members have likely been the prime instigators of the riots.

This is indeed not the first case of a riot sparked by ISIS militants held in prisons and camps in northern and eastern Syria. In mid-March, simultaneous mutiny attempts were instigated in the Sina’a as well as the Suwar prison in northern Deir ez-Zour. Back then, information was circulating that local trials of ISIS militants were set to soon begin. It was also a time when news concerned with the global COVID-19 crisis was picking up speed, and prison riots in neighbouring Jordan and Lebanon took place as a result. It is likely that these immediate factors again motivated the ISIS militants to attempt the recent break-out.

In addition to these incidents, al-Hol IDP camp in Hasakah has represented a heavy burden for the AA authorities and local security forces. It is perhaps the site of greatest concern for the AA authorities, as it accommodates over 71,000 people, many of whom are ISIS-affiliated women and children. Several instances of rioting by ISIS-affiliated women at the camp as well as repeated attempts by ISIS militants to smuggle families out of the camp have severely tested the capacity of the local security forces, who have been distracted by military developments in other parts of the region.

More long-term factors that have allowed ISIS militants to cause disruptions in prisons, as well as in IDP camps such as al-Hol, are the reduction in the regional security forces’ capacity to administer those sites and the delay in any decision regarding trials of ISIS-affiliated individuals, especially non-Syrian ones. These factors allowed for prison break-out attempts by ISIS militants throughout 2019, especially following the Turkish-backed Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria in October 2019 and the US’ declaration that it would be withdrawing its troops from the region.

First of all, with regards to the future trials of ISIS militants in Syria, the Social Justice Council of the AA seems to be eager to push for the establishment of local “special tribunals” to prosecute foreign ISIS militants. Following the reluctance of states to take back their citizens from Syria and to hold trials in their home states, in addition to their ambiguous stance vis-à-vis the establishment of international courts in northern Syria, the AA appears to be taking matters into its own hands. The undertaking of these trials were approved in February while the establishment of the “special tribunals” was confirmed in late March. The continuation of riots and similar disturbances in AA-administered prisons and camps is highly likely to stimulate the regional authorities to initiate local trials in these “special tribunals” very soon.

Western states have thus far had a cordial, if not positive relationship with the AA, with the International Coalition providing direct support in the fight against ISIS and several delegations from EU countries visiting the AA authorities in recent times. The establishment of the tribunals in northern Syria is likely to meet tacit if not direct support from Western countries, especially those that are unwilling to bring back ISIS-affiliated individuals to their countries and amid the ever-changing unstable context of the global COVID-19 crisis.

The Syrian Government and its international ally Russia have been largely quiet in relation to the issue of trials against ISIS militants in Syria. The AA and Damascus have not yet reached a power-sharing political agreement, despite Russian efforts to mediate between the two sides. Although the Syrian Government is keen to take back political and military control over northern and eastern Syria, towards which it made inroads after being invited by the AA to counter the Turkish-backed Operation Peace Spring, Damascus itself may also tacitly approve the AA trials of ISIS militants as it would take a potential future burden off its back.

In any case, even if the AA authorities manage to put the ISIS militants to trial, its capacity to administer prisons holding those found to be guilty will be an immense challenge. The AA may even have to build new prisons to be able to manage the sheer numbers of potential inmates. On its own, the Sina’a prison, which was converted from a school, is said to hold around 5,000 ISIS militants.

Considering the cost and the practical capacity required to administer prisons following potential trials, it is difficult to envisage a situation where the AA could deal with all of this without direct international support. The UN is currently grappling with the spread of COVID-19 in northern Syria and is especially concerned with the fate of displaced people stranded in IDP camps. It has yet to directly engage with the AA authorities on the matter of ISIS prisoners and the establishment of tribunals. The break-out attempt at Sina’a prison, whether or not influenced by an individual issue like COVID-19, in addition to the above mentioned myriad factors at play, is nevertheless a signal for the international community to engage more urgently with the broader matter of ISIS prisoners at hand.