The recent bouts of military escalation in Iraq have once again thrown the US-Iran proxy conflict into the spotlight, as local armed groups and US forces under the International Coalition umbrella exchange tit-for-tat attacks. In the last week alone, four attacks have been conducted on US forces in Iraq, with the US itself conducting retaliatory strikes in southern Iraq against alleged Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) positions. While the frequency of these recent exchanges has notably increased compared to past weeks, they come within the framework of already heightened tensions between the US and Iran, in particular after the US’ assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and deputy chairman of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, on 3rd January. More disconcertingly for Iraq and the wider region, the latest round of strikes seems to ignore all calls for diplomacy and restraint, and a new group – “Usbat al-Tha’ireen” (The League of Revolutionaries) – has emerged, claiming responsibility for these recent strikes against the US.
The latest round of rocket attacks on US forces began on Wednesday 11th March following reports on Tuesday 10th March that the US military was moving advanced air defence systems into Iraq in order to boost troops’ capability to protect themselves from any potential Iranian attack.
On Wednesday evening, 18 rockets hit Taji Base near Baghdad, which houses International Coalition personnel. Following the attack, the Spokesperson for the International Coalition, Colonel Myles B. Caggins III, posted an official statement on Twitter revealing that two US and one UK service members were killed and 18 others were injured as a result of the attack on Taji. The Joint Operations Command (JOC) condemned the attack, calling it a dangerous and hostile act. The attack was also condemned by Iraqi officials and figures, as well as US and UK officials, who called on the Iraqi Government to hold accountable those responsible for the attack and defend their forces from further strikes.
Later on Wednesday night, several outlets reported that PMU bases along the Syrian-Iraqi border were targeted by aircraft, which resulted in the death of 25 PMU members and the injury of 15 others, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Nonetheless, by Friday, the International Coalition denied conducting these attacks.
By midday on Thursday, KH issued a statement “blessing” the attack on Taji, calling on the faction that carried out the attack to claim it publicly so that “it can protect its history”. The statement noted that the “occupying forces must bear the consequences of their illegal presence in Iraq”, adding that “the timing of the attack was appropriate”. The statement indirectly revealed that KH was not responsible for the attack, while at the same time revealing that the attack was likely carried out by another Iran-backed “resistance” faction in the country. By Thursday evening, US Secretary of Defence, Mark Esper, following discussions with US President Donald Trump, stated that “all options are on the table” regarding US retaliation to the Taji attack, which he ascribed to “Iran-backed Shi’a militias”.
The US Strikes Back
The retaliation for these attacks came within a single day. By the early hours of Friday, the US and UK made a series of retaliatory airstrikes against what they labelled in a statement released by the US’ Department of Defence (DoD), as five KH weapons storage facilities across Iraq. The DoD statement made clear that the attacks were in retaliation for the Camp Taji attack. The statement cautioned that the US was prepared to respond again if needed and that these attacks would “significantly degrade” KH’s ability to carry out any further attacks on International Coalition forces. On his end, Britain’s Foreign Minister, Dominic Raab, said that the US-led attack on the five targets was “swift, decisive, and proportionate”, adding that “anyone seeking to harm them [Coalition Forces] can expect a strong response”.
Despite the US and UK’s insistence that the targets were all KH facilities, images showed that amongst the targets hit by the US’ retaliation was Karbala International Airport, a civilian facility which is currently under construction. One civilian was killed and several others were injured in the attack.
In response to the US and UK airstrikes, Iraq’s JOC issued a scathing statement via the Twitter page of the Security Media Cell (SMC) on Friday morning, condemning the retaliation and saying that it “violated the principle of partnership” between the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the International Coalition. According to the statement, the strikes targeted Jurf al-Nasr, al-Saeedat area, Behbehani area, al-Ashter Industrial facility, and the Karbala Airport. The statement revealed that three Iraqi Army members were killed and four were wounded, two Emergency Police members were killed and two others were wounded, and five PMU fighters were injured in the attacks, in addition to the one civilian in Karbala airport. The JOC warned of grave consequences for everyone if similar attacks were to take place.
Iraqi President, Barham Salih, also issued a statement condemning the attack, describing it as “a foreign attack” and an infringement of Iraqi sovereignty and called on the Iraqi Government to do all that it can to protect its sovereignty, implement the rule of law, and prevent Iraq from turning into a battlefield. The head of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, called on all parties to practise self-restraint and spread peace in this sensitive time in Iraq’s history. Al-Sadr said that while he does not support calling for peace with the “occupiers”, he believes that the current situation that Iraqis are facing requires de-escalation.
The military response to the US’ and UK’s retaliatory attack came one day later. On Saturday morning, the Taji military camp, which houses International Coalition forces, was struck once again by rockets, marking the second targeting of the base within a week. According to the JOC, the camp was struck by 33 rockets, which led to the injury of three International Coalition personnel and two Iraqi service members. The statement revealed that the JOC discovered seven rocket launchers inside a garage nearby, which contained a further 24 unused rockets. Addressing potential US retaliation, the JOC said that any further US action is not sanctioned without the approval of the Iraqi Government, making reference to the 13th March attack on the five KH sites, adding that there must be a speedy implementation of the Iraqi Parliament’s decision on the Coalition’s withdrawal.
The League of Revolutionaries
By Sunday evening, a video emerged online from a group called “Usbat al-Tha’ireen” (The League of Revolutionaries), claiming that their members conducted both recent attacks on Camp Taji. In the statement that was posted in the video, the group, whose logo is similar to those of several pro-Iran armed groups in the country, said that the attacks on Coalition forces was an act of vengeance for the US’ assassination of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, adding that this revenge will not end until the US withdraws from the country altogether. Despite similarities to pro-Iran armed groups in Iraq, the style and voice used in the video drew notable comparisons to those previously issued by the Islamic State (IS). However, claims at this stage are pure speculation, given the lack of information about the group, with some observers believing that it is an amalgamation of former KH, Jaish al-Mahdi (now Saraya al-Salam), Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) members who broke off to create a separate group. In doing so, the aim would be to establish plausible deniability between these attacks and the primary factions who are officially under the institution of the PMU, a state-sponsored military apparatus.
On Monday, the US State Department issued an official readout between US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister, Adil Abd al-Mahdi, who had spoken on Sunday, regarding the recent attack. According to the readout, Pompeo stressed that the Government of Iraq must defend International Coalition personnel who are training the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in their fight against the IS. Pompeo said that the groups responsible for these attacks must be held accountable, adding that the US will not tolerate these attacks and threats, and will take additional action in self-defence, if necessary.
Despite these threats, the attacks did not stop. On Monday evening, the SMC reported that two missiles fell on the Besmaya military base, located 45 kilometres south-east of Baghdad. The camp houses between 350 to 550 Spanish troops currently in Iraq under the International Coalition. According to the latest statements, this did not result in any material or human causalities.
The failure of these rockets to hit any targets did not stop “Usbat al-Tha’ireen” from releasing a second video on Tuesday night. In the video showing a man in military attire covering his face with a balaclava and using voice changing technology to mask his voice, the group claimed the recent attack on Camp Taji and Besmaya military camp, saying that these attacks are merely a simple message to show a small part of the capability to strike US troops. The group added that there are longer-range missiles in their arsenals that they will use for more distant targets. The group then threatened the remaining troops in Iraq to leave the country “vertically” or otherwise they will be sent back “horizontally”. The wording was a clear reference to a statement made by Hezbollah Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, in which he advised US troops to leave the Middle East by leaving alive vertically, by their own accord, or they will be sent back dead horizontally, lying in coffins.
The authenticity of the one-minute clip is yet to be verified, especially as the style of these videos is not in line with other visual releases made by “resistance factions.” With no real information about this new group, it is yet to be seen whether this is a real attempt at creating a new anti-US group, or a hoax, attempting to discredit factions opposing the US.
US Troops Withdraw From 3 Bases
Amidst increasing attacks on bases hosting foreign troops, US forces will be withdrawn from three out of eight military bases across Iraq in the coming weeks, including the base in al-Qa’im in Anbar Province, with the equipment at the base in al-Qa’im set to be handed over to the Iraqi Army. Colonel Myles B. Caggins III later revealed on Twitter on Tuesday that he would be holding important discussions with the spokesperson of the SMC, Major General Tahsin al-Khafaji, regarding the departure of International Coalition troops from al-Qa’im. Reports also claimed that US troops will be withdrawing from the Qayyarah Airbase, which was the launchpad for anti-IS operations in Mosul/Nineveh, and the K1 Base in Kirkuk, which was targeted on 7th January by Iran in retaliation to the assassination of Soleimani. While some US officials have officially stated that this withdrawal is due to the efforts and successes of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and that it is just the US readjusting its forces in light of the Coronavirus outbreak in the region, others believe that the US may actually be withdrawing troops from the country indefinitely. It can also be argued that this latest move was actually due to the success of armed groups threats against US troops, especially as US President Trump wants to avoid increasing US casualties, in fear of public outcry ahead of the 2020 elections. While US President, Donald Trump, stated earlier this year that the US will be reducing the number of soldiers in Iraq, and that it was in discussion with the Iraqi Government regarding the mechanism for withdrawal, talks to this end have faded out as the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the wrangling over the Prime Minister position began to make headlines.
Al-Zurfi Assigned
Up until Tuesday, the political deadlock had made the situation worse. However, the designation of Adnan al-Zurfi as the PM-designate has thus far done nothing but add more fuel to the fire. The Fatah Coalition, headed by Hadi al-Ameri, which includes several pro-Iran parties, including AAH and KH, issued a statement condemning the designation of al-Zurfi, saying that it was unconstitutional since al-Zurfi was not selected by the largest bloc, a stipulation mandated by the Iraqi constitutional. The Fatah Coalition said that any repercussions of this decision falls on President Salih for taking this “provocative step” that disregards the law and constitution, signaling a potential feud that may escalate to armed conflict.
With Iraq already facing several crises, including the rejection of some parties of al-Zurfi, who they described as a “US stooge”, the collapse of oil prices, and the spread of Coronavirus which resulted in a country-wide lockdown as the number of infected individuals reaches 164, military escalation against the US will push Iraq towards further instability.
If the Iraqi Government does not act fast and seek to halt the tit-for-tat attacks, and reduce the hostilities between US forces and armed factions in Iraq, many believe that this could plunge the country into a direct armed conflict between the US and Iran-backed factions fought on Iraqi land, especially with the emergence of this new group “Usbat al-Tha’ireen.” As this group is not officially recognised as part of the PMU or any other official security apparatus, the Iraqi Government must seek to enforce its monopoly on the authorised use of violence. This was a promise that al-Zurfi made in his latest appearance addressing the public. However, this may also be met with severe pushback by several factions in the country, who believe that armed resistance against an occupying force is legitimate. Thus, al-Zurfi’s Government may be hard to pass through Parliament.
Future Developments
Nonetheless, with talks of US withdrawal from the country returning to the table once again, especially following Iraq’s JOC statement calling on Parliament to follow through with its 5th January resolution to remove foreign troops, and the statement by Caggins on US withdrawal from several bases, a catastrophe may be averted.
If Iraq can negotiate with the US a timetable to start withdrawing from the country, tensions vis-à-vis the attacks could decrease. However, this decision will probably be rejected by many Sunni and Kurdish blocs, as well as some Shi’a blocs, who believe in the necessity of the US troops’ presence in the country. Nonetheless, if al-Zurfi, who the US favours, manages to pass his government, he will be in a stronger position to negotiate this withdrawal deal. Al-Zurfi has 30 days to to create and pass his government.
A final unintended consequence of recent international events is the outbreak of the Coronavirus, which continues to affect policies – both domestic and foreign – across the world. Given the substantial amount of domestic criticism being levied at Trump for his response to the spread of Coronavirus in the US, the President may seek to divert attention ahead of his election campaign towards attacks on US facilities in Iraq by Iran-backed groups. This will likely see the emergence of heightened anti-Iran rhetoric by both Trump and other US officials over the coming days. This has already been seen with US Marine General Kenneth McKenzie, the head of the US Central Command, saying that “Iran is now more dangerous with Coronavirus”.
On the other hand, the scale of the political and economic impact on the US may see it take another road and try to focus on rebuilding domestic credibility and refocus efforts on domestic issues. If Trump decides to step more concretely away from Iraq and focus on countering Coronavirus and fixing the economy ahead of the 2020 elections, we will see the US decreasing the number of troops in Iraq under the guise of its “America First” policy. This will include continuing to invoke the now limited influence of the IS in Iraq and the wider region and preventing the spread of the Coronavirus to US military officials, especially given neighbouring Iran’s position as a regional epicenter of the virus.
With the rate and speed that events are currently taking place globally, however, it remains highly unpredictable how things will unfold over the next few weeks and months.
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