Muqtada’s “Million-Man” March Raises the Stakes for US Presence in Iraq

On Tuesday (14th January), the head of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, called via Twitter for a “million-man” peaceful demonstration, which would demand the end of the US’ presence in Iraq and its infringement of the country’s sovereignty. This call came nine days after the Iraqi Parliament voted a non-binding resolution to remove foreign forces from Iraqi territory, following the US’ assassination of the former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s Quds Forces (IRGC-QF), Qassem Soleimani, and former Deputy Chairman of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, near Baghdad International Airport.

While al-Sadr did not reveal when and where this demonstration was going to take place, Saleh Mohammed al-Iraqi, an individual closely linked to al-Sadr issued a statement on Wednesday (15th January) saying that the protest is set to take place this Friday (24th January) in the capital, Baghdad. In the days following this statement both al-Sadr and al-Iraqi published several tweets encouraging strong participation in the planned demonstration.

Nonetheless, al-Sadr has faced some pushback.

In what was seen as a slight jab at al-Sadr, the official social media accounts of the Abbas Shrine, which is affiliated with Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, posted a reminder from one of the Ayatollah’s sermons, which warned against figures seeking to hijack the popular movement in order to serve personal interests. Protesters in Tahrir Square and other protest squares have also rejected Sadr’s call, saying that his demonstration seeks to hijack their protest and that his followers may attempt to violently attack them.

In response, al-Sadr addressed this issue saying that the two protests are “two lights emerging from the same lamp” and called on the protesters to continue their peaceful demonstration, which he supports. Protesters in Tahrir Square responded to this saying that while they also reject US presence in Iraq, they also equally condemn Iranian presence in the country, an issue which has been largely ignored by al-Sadr over the past few weeks especially as he been residing in Iran since around September 2019.

While caretaker Prime Minister, Adil Abd al-Mahdi, has continued calls for the US to withdraw its troops, despite US threats of severe sanctions, other officials in the country say that the withdrawal decision was one sided. During the parliamentary session in which this decision was made, a leaked video showed Speaker of the House, Mohammed al-Halbousi, addressing MPs saying this this move may not be the best move, especially due to lack of Sunni and Kurdish MP participation. This sentiment was further echoed by the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Nechirvan Barzani, who said in an interview that the Shi’a blocs who voted for this resolution did not consult the Sunni and Kurdish blocs in parliament. Furthermore, over the past few weeks, the US has repeatedly stated that they are not planning on withdrawing troops from Iraq but are open to discussing a restructuring of the security agreement. This came after US troops in Iraq announced that they have resumed operations in Iraq after they were halted following al-Muhandis’s and Soleimani’s assassination. This motion was immediately rejected by Baghdad, which said that the resumption was not agreed upon as the US was not given the required authorisation.

Washington’s determination to remain in the country, while supported by many Iraqi politicians, has not rested well with several armed groups including Kat’aib Hezbollah (KH), Asa’ib ahl al-Haq, and al-Sadr’s newly rejuvenated Jaysh al-Mahdi and Kata’ib al-Yom al-Maw’oud, which recently announced that they would establish a united transnational resistance against US troops if diplomatic talks do not resolve the issue.

While anti-US sentiment in Iraq is not a new phenomenon, the assassination of Soleimani and al-Muhandis have acted as catalysts and resulted in mass mobilisation of those opposed to the US in Iraq. This is in conjunction with a longstanding political movement to pressure the US to leave Iraq, which gained traction last summer following the strikes on PMU bases in Iraq. While this issue was never brought to parliament, several MPs stated at the time that they would begin efforts to bring this vote on US troop removal to MPs.

If al-Sadr succeeds in bringing millions onto the streets during Friday’s demonstration, political parties and blocs are more likely to escalate the situation politically, viewing the crowds as popular support for this decision. However, if it fails to mobilise enough demonstrators, al-Sadr and others will be dealt a blow to their anti-US movement. There is also concern from some of his supporters about his recent alliances with groups like Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat al-Nujaba, who they consider rivals after they splintered from al-Sadr’s Jaysh al-Mahdi in 2005. But despite these concerns, al-Sadr has previously been able to rally his supporters during critical socio-political events, such as during the 2016 summer protests, where he gathered large crowds against the Iraqi Government and issued calls for a technocratic government.

And there are observations among many people that his ability to mobilise groups will materialise once again. If al-Sadr is able to gather protesters for his “million-man” march, the US may take stricter positions against him, including imposing financial sanctions, a position that has already been taken against some of his rivals-turned-allies. Furthermore, the public pressure that will be put on the already divided Iraqi Government may further entrench the ethno-sectarian disputes between Iraq’s Shi’a and Sunni blocs, and between Baghdad and Erbil. It will also likely dampen the US’ relations with Baghdad, who the US views as leaning more towards Iran, especially in recent months.

One of the more immediate ramifications that will likely been seen is further pushback against the protesters in Tahrir Square and other protest squares in Baghdad. While al-Sadr continues to say that the protests will not clash, other factions participating in the demonstrations have been rather hostile towards the protest movement. Thus, if these factions begin to take a more violent approach towards the protesters under the guise of anti-US sentiment, we may unfortunately see more bloodshed and division.