“Million-Man March” Further Complicates al-Sadr’s Position Regarding Protests

On Friday morning (24th January), the “million-man” march, instigated by the head of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, went ahead with demonstrators gathering in Baghdad’s Karrada and Jadriyyah neighbourhoods. The protesters carried Iraqi flags, heeding al-Sadr’s previous recommendation about not carrying flags affiliated with factions or militias. Although the exact number of participants is unknown, al-Sadr appeared to have rallied enough protesters to grab the attention of the political class and protesters in Tahrir Square and other protest squares. The protests, which began early in the morning, ended approximately three hours later, concluding after Mohammed Salih al-Iraqi, a figure closely associated with al-Sadr, issued a statement signed off by al-Sadr himself. While the statement was mainly focused on the US’ troop presence in Iraq, protesters loyal to al-Sadr began to withdraw from the protest squares in Baghdad, Dhi Qhar and Basra by Friday midday and evening.

Following this withdrawal, protesters who were frustrated with what they termed al-Sadr’s “betrayal” began calling on other citizens to join the protests to repopulate the movement, as the numbers visibly decreased after al-Iraqi’s statement. The same evening, the “Shock Forces” in Basra were deployed to the protest squares in the province, where they burnt protesters’ tents in order to forcibly remove them. Prior to the protests, the Shock Forces, which were introduced as part of the security forces in 2018, were responsible for sting operations on drug cartels in Basra as well as resolving disputes between tribal groups. On Saturday, the security forces continued to push back against the protesters in Baghdad. Activists claimed that the attacks on protest squares in Baghdad, Basra, and Dhi Qhar over the week were in direct coordination with the withdrawal of al-Sadr’s followers. According to the activists, this push back was facilitated by al-Sadr’s armed factions in coordination with the official security forces. Many of the calls from the ground were against al-Sadr, with protesters carrying signs saying that al-Sadr is just another corrupt official.

On Sunday, al-Iraqi issued a statement saying that due to the constant attacks on al-Sadr for withdrawing from the protests, al-Sadr would halt “all positive and negative” support to the protests. The statement threatened that if the protest movement does not return to its previous peacefulness and clear anti-Government path, then the Sadrist Movement would take “another position to aid the heroic security forces, which have to ensure security”. Many protesters saw this statement as al-Sadr threatening to crack down on the protests if the protesters do not cease criticism of al-Sadr’s decision to withdraw. Later that day, Salih posted another statement signed by al-Sadr entitled “Advice” [to the protesters]. In the 12-point statement, al-Sadr called on protesters to bring the protests back to their peaceful nature, as well as banish instigators and trouble makers. Al-Sadr also called for the resumption of all schools, including those in Nasiriyah. Al-Sadr stated that while he does not want any of his pictures hung in the protest squares, he called on protesters to reject those trying to sow discord by spreading hate, in reference to protesters attacking the Sadrist Movement for their betrayal. Al-Sadr ended the statement saying that if this advice is heeded, he would renew support for the protests; otherwise, he would be the first to say that the protests have been hijacked and have deviated from their original aims.

On Sunday evening, protesters in Nasriyah’s Haboubi Square were attacked by armed men who burned their tents and used live ammunition and tear gas against protesters. Protesters immediately accused al-Sadr’s followers of carrying out this attack, which resulted in further division amongst the protesters and further splits between the protesters and Sadrists themselves.

Over the past several weeks, al-Sadr’s positions towards the protests and his former rivals have changed dramatically. While al-Sadr previously called groups like Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba “uncontrolled militias”, the assassination of the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s Quds Forces (IRGC-QF), Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy chairman of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, resulted in al-Sadr allying with these groups to demand the US’ withdrawal from the country. Furthermore, in an interesting transition, al-Sadr whose relationship with the head of the Fatah Bloc, Hadi al-Ameri, has been on and off over the past years, seems to have been strengthened. Following a lawsuit by al-Ameri against MP Faiq al-Sheikh Ali for defamation, al-Sadr issued a statement backing al-Ameri’s lawsuit.

While protesters on the ground reject al-Sadr’s recent leaning towards Iran and other pro-Iran factions, the large decrease in protesters in the protest squares after the Sadrist withdrawal has left a hole in the movement. Despite previously downplaying the Sadrist Movement’s participation in the protests, protesters in Tahrir Square seem to be trying to make amends with al-Sadr. According to several observers, activists on the ground who posted on social media platforms against al-Sadr have since deleted their posts and are attempting to plea with the Sadrists to return to the protest squares. A video that emerged on Tuesday showed protesters sending a message to Sadrists apologising for the attacks made against them and al-Sadr. They called on Sadrists to return to the protests in order to continue their fight against corruption.

On Tuesday, al-Iraqi posted an image on Facebook, which highlights three demands by the protesters: finalising the electoral law, selecting an independent and undebatable prime minister, and determining the date of a snap elections. Many saw this post as an implicit resumption of Sadrist backing of the protests. Nonetheless, the future of Sadrist Participation in the protests is still unknown.

While some have been saying that al-Sadr’s latest steps are his attempts to ride the protest wave, as a means of ensuring his position within the political arena, others believe al-Sadr has restored his relationship with Iran in order to create a consolidated Shi’a front. According to these observers, this may result in civil conflict and may eventually result in the fracturing of the country. Yet al-Sadr has been able to successfully adapt to the situation in the country multiple times, especially since 2014. Despite seeing them as prior enemies, al-Sadr struck alliances with Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and many other Sadrist splinter factions in order to fight the Islamic State (IS), taking a pragmatic position to overcome a shared enemy. By the end of the war against the IS, al-Sadr returned to his previous positions regarding the aforementioned groups and tried to recreate his image as a nationalist leader ahead of the 2018 elections. During the beginning of the protests, al-Sadr fully sided with the protests, only to reestablish his relations with his former rivals after the US’ strikes on Iraq. While it is likely that al-Sadr’s position towards the protests will soften soon, the leader of the Sadrist Movement will attempt to keep his role and influence intact both on the streets and within the political arena.