Since the start of the protests on 1st October 2019, Iraq’s highest ranking Shi’a cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has become increasingly critical of the Iraqi Government, siding mostly with the Iraqi protesters. The majority of the 89-year-old Marja’s (Shi’a religious leader) statements are given as part of the Friday sermon by his two representatives, Sheikh Abd al-Mahdi al-Karbalaei, and Sayed Ahmed al-Safi, in the city of Karbala, Iraq. While Sistani is not the only Marja’ in Iraq, his position places him as the head of the Marja’iyah (the Supreme Shi’a Religious Authority) in Iraq. While the Marja’iyah (represented by Sistani) does not hold any official power within the Iraqi Government, the sermons and fatwas he issues are heeded to by millions of Iraqis, which in turn have an indelible impact on the trajectory of Iraqi politics. Amongst the most notable recent efforts include Sistani’s call on the ruling Dawa Party in 2014 to replace former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki with an individual that enjoyed more legitimacy amongst Iraqis, and the mass mobilisation fatwa following the invasion of the Islamic State (IS) in 2014, which resulted in the formation of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU). These political and military changes demonstrate how the statements issued by the Marja’iyah on Fridays are taken very seriously by both the public and Iraq’s ruling class.
Following the violent pushback by the security forces against protesters in early October, Ayatollah Sistani issued a statement in which he called on the government to conduct a sincere and credible investigation regarding the individuals responsible for the violence. Ayatollah Sistani gave the government a two-week period to carry out this investigation, stating that if it was not carried out, then the government was not serious about taking real steps towards reform. Immediately after this statement was released, Iraqi Prime Minister, Adil Abd al-Mahdi, announced the launch of an investigation, revealing a number of findings. The revelations uncovered by the investigation, however, were unappealing for many Iraqis due to the lack of key issues including the lack of identification of the snipers that killed protesters. The Ayatollah subsequently issued a statement on Friday 25th October, saying that the findings “did not show all the facts”, and called for an independent investigation to be launched. With reports of the 25th October protests starting, Sistani called on the protesters to demonstrate peacefully and the security forces to practise restraint.
On 1st November, one week after the start of the second round of protests, Ayatollah Sistani issued a scathing statement noting that “no person or group with a certain political orientation can impose their own opinion [on the Iraqi people] and no regional or international power has the right to usurp the will of the people”. While the statement did not explicitly mention who the “powers” were, some observers stated that Sistani was responding to the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who had issued a statement a couple of days earlier, which called on the Iraqi people to foil the plans of the US and Israel. Others, however, stated that the statement was not directed exclusively at Iran, but rather to the US and other regional and international powers as well. Many also extended Sistani’s criticisms to Muqtada al-Sadr for attempting to shift public opinion for his own benefit and to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for its pushback against reforming the constitution. Nevertheless, some observers criticised the Marja’iyah for its lack of clarity and the delayed response to foreign interference into Iraq’s internal affairs.
As protests continued over the week starting on 8th November, Sistani’s representative reiterated the Marja’iyah’s position regarding the protests, asserting that the political elite in the country now have a unique opportunity to respond to the protesters’ demands, agree on a roadmap to be implemented within a specific timeframe, and end corruption and the absence of social justice. The representative also reiterated Sistani’s position regarding foreign involvement saying that no entities, be they internal or external, should be allowed to exploit these protests and warned citizens not to allow these entities to hijack the protests and change their course from peaceful reform. At that point, the majority of Sistani’s statement revolved around the need to maintain the peacefulness of the protests and reject foreign influence. However, on 11th November, the Ayatollah met with the head of the UN Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and said that “if the executive, legislative and judicial authorities are unable or unwilling to pursue the necessary reforms, another way of doing so must be considered, as the situation cannot continue as it was before the protests”. This massive transition from merely calling on the government to enact change to stating that another course of action must be taken if the government is unwilling to carry out reforms was seen by many as an intensification of Sistani’s rhetoric.
On 15th November, Ayatollah Sistani released his most scathing attack against the Iraqi Government since the start of the 1st October protests. In the sermon, Sistani’s representative stated that “if those in power believe that they can evade carrying out real reform through procrastination and deliberately stalling, then they are delusional”. The sermon also gave more legitimacy to the protests, while focusing on the need to reform the electoral law. According to a view shared by some observers, this sermon hinted in part at holding snap elections following the reform of the electoral law, a demand that many protesters had been calling for. Reiterating his position towards foreign intervention, Sistani stated that the burden of reform lies only on Iraqis and that no external force should turn the country into an arena for conflict and settling scores. This statement, which is likely in reference to the ongoing US-Iran rivalry in the region, highlighted the rejection of both sides’ involvement, linking it to the perpetuation of further chaos and division within Iraq.
With a new electoral law being currently proposed in Parliament, it seems as though the Iraqi Government is attempting to heed to the Marja’iyah’s calls. However, with activists and protesters asserting that this draft law will likely preserve the status quo and not enact real change, Sistani may take a more aggressive stance in the upcoming weeks.
With claims that this upcoming Friday’s sermon will likely be even more critical of the current government’s stalling and drive for real change, the Marja’iyah’s position on the current crisis cannot be taken lightly. As aforementioned, the influence that the Marja’iyah has amongst the public has the potential to divert people’s stances against the government. The change in rhetoric in the Marja’iyah’s sermons shows that while the institution is very careful in making sure not to fully de-legitimise the government, its pro-protesters position is likely an attempt to preserve its reputation among the public. With the majority of protesters rejecting the current political class, and at times critical of the Marja’iyah itself, the preservation of the latter’s remaining influence and status amongst the public is crucial to them at this point.
Furthermore, while the Marja’iyah has been calling for political reform and anti-corruption measures to be taken since the early days of Iraq’s young democracy, the lack of immense public pressure on the government and lack of real reform enacted by the political class have put the Marja’iyah in a difficult position. This was specifically seen around mid-2018, when the Marja’iyah called on the political class to reform the elections laws, prior to the election, only to find its call falling on deaf ears. However, with citizens in Baghdad and the southern provinces, now enraged at the government, the Marja’iyah is in a stronger position to leverage its statements against the government, with the aim of achieving real reform.
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