On Wednesday 15th May, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, announced the formation of a working group that will convene in the coming days to attempt to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Greater Idlib region. Since the start of May, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has clashed with Opposition factions in northern Hama and southern Idlib, with observers saying that this is the most intense period of fighting, shelling and airstrikes in the region for over a year.
The announcement had followed a discussion held between the two presidents on Monday 13th, following which Erdoğan accused the Syrian Government of seeking to sabotage Turkish-Russian cooperation in the region and reiterated both sides’ continued support for the implementation of the de-escalation agreement.
Erdoğan’s accusation levied against the Syrian Government emulated an earlier statement released by the Turkish Minister of Defence, Hulusi Akar, who charged the Syrian Government with attempting to expand its area of control in the Greater Idlib region and called on Moscow to take decisive action, despite Russia’s main role in supporting and green-lighting the offensive. Nevertheless, Erdoğan and Akar’s words did not ease the simmering anti-Turkish sentiments in Greater Idlib, with numerous towns witnessing demonstrations where Ankara’s silence and inaction was condemned.
Indeed, Moscow and Damascus have often accused Turkey of failing in its obligation to contain the militant coalition, Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which rapidly expanded and consolidated its control over Idlib at the start of the year. Turkey has previously been reluctant to act militarily against the HTS to avoid alienating itself with the Syrian Opposition, which views Turkey as a key ally in the region. Moreover, with the announcement of the withdrawal of US forces in Syria, whose timeline remains unclear, Turkey’s attention has turned to preparing the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) for an assault into territory controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It is, therefore, likely that Ankara has avoided provoking Moscow over the latest clashes in Greater Idlib to gain Russian acquiescence towards a future advance on the town of Tel Rifaat, which is held by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main constituent force within the SDF.
Nevertheless, despite initial fears that the clashes could be the start of an SAA-led campaign to recapture Idlib in its entirety, it is more likely that the SAA and its Russian backers will limit the scope of their operations to northern Hama within the guise of a security campaign to prevent further drone attacks on the Hmeimim Airbase. However, whilst Moscow may intend for the offensive to be of limited scope to avoid alienating itself from its allies in Ankara, the clashes thus far have targeted areas under the control of National Front for Liberation (NFL) factions, which are included within the de-escalation agreement. Rebel factions may view the ongoing clashes as their make-or-break moment, unwilling to concede defeat in the region and potentially forcing government forces into the long fight.
Indeed, on Friday 10th of May, numerous rebel groups announced the formation of a joint operations room entitled Fatah Dimashq (Conquest of Damascus). The operations room notably includes factions from within the HTS and the NFL, which have since brought reinforcements to the region and launched joint counterattacks against the SAA. The latest collaboration between rebel and militant factions could also prompt the SNA, which over the preceding weeks has grown increasingly agitated with its Turkish backers due to a lack of military action, to act unitarily and join a united front against the Syrian Government and its allies. Moreover, the formation of a joint operations room could set the stage for HTS leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, to position himself as the legitimate leader of the opposition in Idlib, who would likely be unwilling to abide by a future ceasefire, potentially opening the way for a prolonged period of clashes.