Two weeks after the announcement by United States President Donald Trump of the withdrawal of US forces in Syria, the country’s north-eastern region, which is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has been plunged into political turmoil amidst questions over who will take over control. The city of Manbij, which is located 32 kilometres south of the Turkish-Syrian border, has emerged as the epicentre of the negotiations over the future of northern Syria.
Over the previous two weeks, negotiations between the Syrian Government and the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have picked up speed in response to the withdrawal of US support for the SDF. Although negotiations between the two sides have been ongoing since the beginning of last summer, the withdrawal announcement has left the SDC scrambling to reach a political settlement with the Syrian Government that could allow the organisation to survive.
In an effort to accelerate the negotiations, the SDC has reportedly abandoned its key demand for a future federal structure in north-eastern Syria, instead requesting a position in the post-US governance in the region. Some pro-Government media also claimed that the SDC has accepted resumed Syrian Arab Army (SAA) presence in Manbij but is continuing to demand local governance.
Meanwhile, SDC Co-Presidents Ilham Ahmed and Riad Darar have visited Paris where they engaged in talks with the French Government. As one of the countries committed to the International Coalition, France will likely lend a friendly ear but is unlikely to be willing or capable of supporting SDC autonomy. The SDC may therefore opt to leverage its ties with Paris to gain a better deal from Damascus.
Although a comprehensive deal is yet to be reached, reports have emerged of cooperation between the two sides. Last Friday, 28th December, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), a major component of the SDF, invited the SAA to assume control of Manbij in return for the YPG’s withdrawal. This is despite having already claimed that all YPG forces in Manbij had left during the Turkish-US agreement.
In response to the invitation, the Syrian Ministry of Defence issued a statement announcing that the SAA had officially taken control of Manbij and around 400 YPG fighters had withdrawn from the city in preparation for the SAA taking control of their position. However, numerous pro-YPG, pro-Government and pro-Opposition observers have since contradicted the Ministry of Defence’s announcement, stating that the SAA itself has not entered the city in full and that the only force that has entered the city so far was a delegation.
The reaction from Turkey and its allies, the Syrian National Army (SNA), has been broadly negative. The Turkish Ministry of Defence has expressed scepticism at the announcement of the YPG, noting that the organisation has no authority or legitimacy to invite the SAA or any other group to Manbij. Describing the statement as “suspicious”, the statement called for all sides to avoid provocation. Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, echoed these points, describing the flurry of announcements and reports as psychological operations. Erdoğan expressed determination to take measures against the YPG. However, the news agency Reuters also quoted Erdoğan as stating that his government ultimately supports Syrian sovereignty, adding that once terrorist groups leave the area, Ankara will have nothing left to do there.
Erdoğan’s statement appears to suggest that Turkey is willing to acquiesce to the Syrian Government if it assumes control of Manbij, and indeed, the wider north-eastern region. Paradoxically, it is likely that Turkey views the Syrian Government as the greatest chance of providing security and stability in the SDF-controlled regions following the departure of the US. If the Syrian Government is able to incorporate the SDF into the militia structures of the Syrian state, which would include the YPG, it could, ultimately, remove the need for Turkey to invade SDF-controlled regions in northern Syria.
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