On Tuesday 21st May, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Adil Abd al-Mahdi, announced his intention for Iraq to act as an intermediary between the United States and neighbouring Iran following a week of increased tensions between the two countries. As part of these efforts, Abd al-Mahdi has said that he will send delegations to Washington and Tehran in a bid to bring both sides to the table and mediate an end to tensions, which many fear could precipitate into violence in Iraq. Abd al-Mahdi’s offer has come as US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif escalated their exchange of threats on Twitter last weekend and into the beginning of this week, during which Trump threatened to “end” Iran.
Efforts to reduce the escalating tensions between the US and Iran have become a top priority for Baghdad, which has increasingly found itself caught in the middle of Iranian and US’ demands as the two countries grapple for greater influence in Iraq following the defeat of ISIS. Indeed, the latest escalation has taken place as the US steps up its pressure on Iraq, India and China to comply with its latest sanctions, which had been imposed on Iran following the US’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) last May.
Iraq’s position as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran has reflected Baghdad’s increased focus on a multilateral approach to the country’s post-ISIS reconstruction and investment initiatives, which has enabled it to expand its influences beyond those of the US and Iran.
Since Abd al-Mahdi took office, Baghdad’s focus on achieving greater independence and neutrality contributed to the success of the Prime Minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia in March this year, during which 13 new trade agreements were signed and Riyadh agreed to reopen a consulate in Iraq for the first time in almost 30 years. Furthermore, in late April of this year, Iraq signed several agreements and memorandums of understanding (MoU) with Russia to develop Iraq’s energy, transportation, finance and other sectors, in what can be seen as an attempt to mitigate US influence. Nevertheless, the growing schism between Iran and the US, in addition to the heightened prospect of conflict, could have a destabilising impact on Iraq and harm its ability to attract further post-war investment.
Sunday’s rocket attack on the Green Zone in Baghdad also ramped up tensions between the two countries, with the US levying blame for the attack on pro-Iranian factions. Following this, a number of pro-Iran factions rushed to condemn the attack and adopted a clear reconciliatory tone in a bid to de-escalate tensions with the US. The shift in rhetoric amongst senior officials from a number of pro-Iran factions, including the Fatah Coalition, is a clear reflection of their intent to de-escalate tensions with the US and avoid plunging Iraq into its third conflict in less than two decades.
Indeed, Iraq’s move to mediate between the US and Iran could prove pivotal in preventing the inadvertent outbreak of violence between the two sides, as the US forces continue to amass in the region. The recent tensions have highlighted Iraq’s vulnerabilities as a close ally of both Iran and the US. But its position could provide it with the necessary leverage to negotiate a short term de-escalation deal, which could form the basis for future talks between the US and Iran.
For more information on this subject and other developments in Iraq, subscribe to our daily intelligence reports and weekly digests.