In the province of Daraa, southern Syria, a pro-Opposition insurgency has gathered momentum against its resistance to loyalist forces in the region. On Monday 11th March, the pro-Opposition insurgent group, Popular Resistance, was held responsible for the killing of a loyalist officer by the name Nasser Hussein al-Amari. Three of his bodyguards were also killed in the attack. The pro-Opposition news website, Nedaa, also made an unsubstantiated claim that four members of the Lebanese Hezbollah were killed by an IED attack near Daraa al-Balad. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) also recently reported an IED attack against the home of a reconciled officer formerly affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) by the name Abu Murshid Badran. In addition to the attacks in Daraa Province, pro-Opposition insurgents launched two attacks on SAA checkpoints in the town of Rastan, northern Homs Province. The attack in Homs is the first of its type to take place in the north after a previous group by the name Abu Amara Special Task Force – ostensibly affiliated with Hayy’atTahrir al-Sham (HTS) – went quiet following numerous attacks in Aleppo City and Hama countryside,
The recent uptick in pro-Opposition insurgent attacks has come amidst demonstrations in Daraa City over the weekend of the 9th and 10th March, which were motivated by the recent restoration of a statue of Hafez al-Assad, which was damaged during the initial protests against the Syrian Government in early 2011. What started as protests against the statue, however, have since morphed into calls for wider reconstruction, cessation of arrests of opposition activists and other grievances that motivated the 2011 protests to begin with. Subsequent protests were also reported in the nearby town of Tafas on Monday 11th.
In northern Aleppo Province, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) and its allies the Syrian National Army (SNA) have faced a growing Kurdish insurgency following the defeat of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Afrin last February. Between March 2018 and February this year, the YPG, in addition to the insurgent groups the Afrin Liberation Forces (HRE) and the Wrath of Olives Operation Room have claimed responsibility for 245 attacks against SNA targets [1]. Although it is unlikely that the Kurdish insurgency will drive the TSK-backed SNA out of Afrin, it nevertheless sets a precedent that could be replicated if the TSK goes forward with its plan to create a buffer zone east of the Euphrates in territories that are currently under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is a constituent.
The YPG and the wider SDF themselves have struggled to control a rise in insurgent attacks carried out by numerous groups. Prime among these groups is ISIS which has claimed numerous attacks against the SDF across Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour. These attacks, often targeting checkpoints and security facilities, highlight the post-ISIS challenges the SDF will face. These insurgencies, in combination with the high number of foreign ISIS militants and supporters held by the SDF, could make for a toxic and dangerous combination.
Smaller insurgent groups of other affiliations have also targeted the SDF. The most infamous among these is Harakat al-Qiyam, a small pro-Opposition group. Throughout last year, the group was held responsible for a number of hit-and-run attacks on YPG targets and often filmed the attacks for its propaganda videos. However, the group’s capabilities picked up pace from November and began to perform high-profile attacks against high ranking members of the YPG, including the targeting of the Manbij Military Council (MMC) spokesperson Shervan Darwish. Although the group appears to have been eliminated by the SDF, it has been known to return from the bring in the past.
Another group is the Popular Resistance in Raqqa/the Eastern Regions which calls for the ousting of the SDF and the “occupation forces” and espouses the return of the SAA. First announced March last year, it has mostly stuck to acts of civil disobedience and provocation. But this week, it claimed an IED attack on an SDF convoy in Raqqa, significantly increasing the stakes.
The increase in insurgent attacks across Syria over the past year is indicative of the direction the conflict in Syria will take as it enters its eighth year. Following the re-capture of much of Syria by the Syrian Government and the near-total defeat of ISIS by the SDF in eastern Syria, many of the conflict’s major players have reached a stalemate. The recent decision by the United States to retain 400 “peace-keeping” troops in eastern Syria will likely prevent any future advance into SDF territory by the TSK and will also provide the SDF with a stronger negotiating position in its talks with the Syrian Government. However, the lack of a long-term political solution could enable different parties to the conflict to continue to stoke regional frustrations and contribute to the growth of insurgent groups across the country.
[1] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/03/afrin-human-rights-turkey-fsa-war-crimes.html