Bi-Monthly MENA Report | April #2 2022

Among the stories that we cover in this edition:

• Egypt announces aid to Sudan following the visit of Sudanese Army General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to Cairo
• The IMF increases its growth projection for Egypt for FY 2021-22 despite the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war
• Militia groups once again stop production in Libya’s El Feel oilfield, evidencing growing splits between eastern and western regions in the country
• Algeria and Italy sign energy deal
• Saudi crude exports reach their highest level since April 2020
• The new presidential council in Yemen is inaugurated, with further signs that Saudi Arabia is looking to exit the conflict
• Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reopen embassies in Lebanon, pointing to an easing of tensions
• The Islamic State (IS) conducted an attack on an Iraqi army outpost in Anbar Province
• The World Bank projects economic growth in Iraq of 8.9%, largely due to higher oil prices

By all indications, the IS attack was intended to break out an estimated 3,500 IS militants, most of whom are foreigners. Among the prisoners are several high-ranking leaders of the group.

Although the SDF has managed to keep the situation from escalating, and numerous militants who escaped were captured, the situation nevertheless represents the exact type of nightmare scenario that SDF officials have been warning about since 2019. With an estimated 10,000 IS militants held in facilities across SDF-held territories in northern Syria, the attack on the Sinaa Prison once again highlights that the IS has not only remained a credible threat, but has now become emboldened enough to launch full-frontal assaults on high-security facilities.

Furthermore, the fact that the attack on the Sinaa Prison took place on the same day as an IS attack in an Iraqi outpost suggests some degree of coordination and could be a sign of future escalation of its insurgency operations.

While the fact that the IS attack on the prison was repelled is a positive development as far as local counter-terrorism capacities are concerned, the attack should nevertheless compel the authorities to reassess their capabilities and address any deficiencies in their response to the IS threat. Moving forward, members of the International Coalition should also address the lingering question of what to do with the captive IS militants. However, with numerous international crises diverting attention and resources away from Syria, implementing robust measures to manage these concerns will be an uphill task.

What Do We Know of the Attack?

Located in the Ghwayran District of Hasakah City, the Sinaa Prison (also known as Ghwayran Prison) holds about 3,500 IS militants, many of whom are foreigners. Like the al-Roj and al-Hol Camps, the prison has been long regarded as a tempting target for IS militants.

On the night of Thursday January 20^th, the IS detonated two car bombs along the walls of the prison before launching a ground attack on the prison itself in an attempt to free the inmates.

During the initial hours of the attack, the IS militants appear to have had success in taking control of parts of the facility. In the hours following the attack, IS militants posted videos showing freed militants, as well as some of the hostages they took.

Since then, however, the SDF and the International Coalition mobilised and established a cordon around the district, and announced a curfew across the whole city. The International Coalition carried out airstrikes around the prison, signifying the intensity of the fighting. The fighting remain sporadic as of Thursday, 27^th January as the SDF clears the last blocs still under militant control.

Overall, the SDF reported that 550 IS militants who escaped have surrendered or have been captured, while another 175 have been killed during the clashes. These numbers will almost certainly change as the toll of the attack becomes clearer in the aftermath. Among the most significant considerations will be whether the large majority of the prisoners managed to break out or not.

What Does This Bloody Day Signify?

The assault on Sinaa Prison took place on the same day as another bloody IS attack, this time in the Diyala Province of Iraq. There, suspected IS militants attacked an Iraqi army barracks in the al-Azim District 120 kilometres north of Baghdad, killing 11 soldiers. It was the deadliest attack of 2022 so far and one of the deadliest to take place since the group lost its territorial holdings in the country in 2017. The attack represented an upwards trend in high-casualty attacks, having followed another attack in the Makhmour Mountains last month in which ten people, including seven Peshmerga fighters, were killed. As a whole, the ISF warns that IS attacks around the Baghdad belt, especially around Tarmiyah and Taiji have picked up.

Overall, these attacks were some of the most brazen to be conducted by the militants. The International Coalition framed the attack as one of desperation. Indeed, the group was likely, in part, motivated by a need to grab the headlines after being eclipsed by a succession of developments around the world, including the Taliban victory in Afghanistan mid-2021. A high-profile attack on a secure compound aimed at freeing its militants would almost certainly have raised the group’s profile among the global jihadi scene.

Similarly, desperation can also be attributed to why the group launched such a high-profile attack to begin with. After all, it is entirely possible that the decision to free thousands of imprisoned militants was motivated by recruitment pools elsewhere drying up. However, framing the attack as being entirely motivated by desperation would be a grave mistake. The attack was, by all accounts, well-coordinated. Furthermore, it was able to proceed even after the authorities in Iraq busted an IS cell last November that was preparing for an attack on the prison.

Significantly, the attack did not take place in isolation but was rather a culmination of a years-long insurgency campaign in both Iraq and Syria that sought to keep security forces off-balance. Attacks targeting community leaders, checkpoints and other soft targets have been a regular feature, especially in areas controlled by the SDF. Although the group has remained weaker than it was during its peak, US military officials warned that the group’s operational capabilities are showing higher levels of “maturity”. In this sense, the attack on the prison, as well as the attack on the Iraqi army barracks in Diyala, may represent the next stage of the IS insurgency as it tries to make a comeback. Indeed, in our forecast for 2022, we noted prison break attempts as a possible sign of the group reconstituting itself.

Echoes of 2014?

At Integrity UK, we have frequently warned that the IS could go back to the insurgency model it pursued between 2008 and 2014.

During those six years following the IS’ defeat back when it was known as “Islamic State of Iraq”, the group waged a low-intensity but constant insurgency in northern Iraq, targeting security forces and community leaders while embedding itself among remote communities in the region. Prison breaks around Mosul and Tikrit were one of the hallmarks of this campaign and offered the group an easy source of loyal recruits. Already building strength, they have exploited the conflict in Syria, the political disorder in Iraq, and the withdrawal of the United States in order to operate openly, taking over large swathes of territory.

The situation today resembles that of 2008-2013 in many ways. Iraq is once again in the midst of a political crisis over endemic corruption and political deadlock that has triggered a major, nation-wide protest movement. The hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the on-going withdrawal in Iraq has similarly emboldened jihadi groups who are expecting a similar development to take place in Syria where the US-led Coalition continues to support the SDF. With international tensions also rising due to developments in Ukraine, it is possible that the IS saw the current situation ripe for the next stage of its insurgency.

These trends are certainly paying attention to, and are indicative of what the group may do next. However, the strategic and political landscape has changed significantly since the last decade.

First off, both Iraq and Syria have significantly improved counter-terrorism capabilities. In Iraq, in particular, years of intelligence and counter-terrorism development capabilities have allowed the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to become almost entirely self-sufficient. Although there remain many questions about operational capabilities and, in particular, coordination between the different branches, the skills, capabilities and morale of the ISF has improved significantly since 2014.

Similarly, the SDF and the US-led Coalition have spent the years since the destruction of IS’ territorial presence improving counter-terrorism capabilities. Although limited resources and a fraught political terrain limits the SDF’s capabilities, the group has nevertheless remained capable of busting IS cells. Furthermore, the fact that no significant breakouts have taken place from prisons despite repeated attempts by the militants – albeit none as ostentatious as last week’s attack – suggests that the SDF is, for now, capable of addressing security needs.

The jihadi scene is also far more fractured than it was in 2014 when the IS was able to build alliances with a smattering of other factions. Today, many other jihadi groups are mistrustful of the IS for their established track record of liquidating former allies. The success of more “nationalist” models of jihadi governance in Afghanistan and Syria’s Idlib may also make the IS model less attractive to prospective jihadi militants.

Moving Forwards

Any optimism to be had, however, needs to be tempered. With international attention gradually moving away from the Middle East, despite many of the structural factors that led to the rise of the IS remaining unaddressed, the group will almost certainly continue to exploit the so-called grey zones, deficiencies in governance or political instability to rebuild its brand and recoup its capabilities.

The most important matter to address will be that of the IS prisoners still being held in SDF facilities across Syria. Since capturing the IS stronghold of Baghuz almost exactly three years ago, the SDF has been adamant that it cannot keep the group’s foreign militants indefinitely. SDF officials have repeatedly called on countries around the world to repatriate their citizens to take the burden off the SDF while preventing the group from bolstering its ranks in the event of a prison break.

Thursday’s attack should be a wake-up call for any government around the world which still has citizens held in facilities across northern Syria. A recent sentencing of a German IS militant and his wife for their part in the Yazidi genocide may offer a legal precedent that can help other governments repatriate their own citizens and put them on trial. Achieving this, however, is contingent on creating an effective international framework that may simply not be possible in today’s fraught international climate.

Meanwhile, counting the cost in the aftermath of the attack is the most pressing priority for the SDF and the International Coalition. It is entirely possible that the IS attack on the Sinaa Prison ended up costing the group more than it gained. If that is the case, then security forces should take this as an opportunity to go on the offensive against IS sleeper cells.

If the IS, however, was successful in freeing large numbers of militants and absconding with captured equipment from the SDF, then the coming days will see intensified attacks on high-security installations. Developments around holding facilities such as al-Roj and al-Hol will be especially important to watch. The group may also launch more cross-border attacks in a bid to expand its operation range, denying the SDF, Baghdad and Damascus spaces to secure and govern along more remote areas.

Bi-Monthly MENA Report | January #1 2022

In this edition, we cover:

• Libya grapples with the aftermath of its postponed elections.
• Tunisia launches the national consultation on constitutional reforms.
• Syria joins China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
• Frontlines around Marib in Yemen shift, move south amidst gains by the Saudi-led Coalition.
• Lebanon announces new elections for May 15 as the Lebanese Pound crashes again.
• Iraq holds “chaotic” first parliamentary session after election results are confirmed by the Federal Court.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts Egyptian bond windfall for investors.
• King Abdullah II meets Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz.

Bi-Monthly MENA Report | December #2 2021

In this edition, we cover:

• Postponement of elections in Libya amidst further signs of renewed conflict across the country.
• Iran’s Ambassador to Sana’a recalled to Tehran before passing away from Covid-19.
• UN Secretary General meets Lebanon’s President, Michel Aoun, to discuss the ongoing social, political and economic crises, as well as assurances that elections will be held in March 2022.
• The Syrian Government publishes its 2022 budget, with a large year-on-year drop, attributed to Damascus’s ongoing economic woes.
• Muqtada al-Sadr reaches out to rival Shia parties in an attempt to build a political consensus.
• Egypt’s trade picks up with China and East African states.
• Jordanian officials host Saudi-Iranian talks amidst a sign of thaw in relations.

Bi-Monthly MENA Report | December #1 2021

In this edition, we are covering:

• The UN warns that the situation in Libya may become too unstable for elections, amidst polarising candidates and growing militia impunity
• Further details emerge about the attempted assassination of Iraq PM al-Kadhimi
• Israel and Egypt Foreign Ministers meet in Cairo

• The removal of the Grand Mufti of Syria and the IRGC Head in Syria from their positions – what are the implications for their removal in Syria and the wider region?
• Libya’s updated candidate list for the country’s December 24th elections – who has been approved and rejected by the electoral commission?
• Jordan’s energy and water agreement with Israel, the UAE and the US – what were the responses from Palestinians in the country and the implications for the Saudi-UAE rivalry?

Bi-Monthly MENA Report | November #2 2021

Bi-Monthly MENA Report | November #1 2021

Bi-Monthly MENA Report | October #2 2021

MENA Geo-Political Risk | October 2021 | Integrity UK

In this report, we focus on Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, Tunisia, Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Jordan.

Image credits: 2018 Advantus Media, Inc. and QuoteInspector.com