Although the visits focused predominantly on maintaining and improving bilateral ties, Washington’s priorities were also clearly visible during the visit, which saw Blinken tout the Abraham Accords to Algeria, attempt to ease Morocco’s conflict in Western Sahara, and look to pull both countries away from Moscow.

It is also evident that Washington is conscious of potential flashpoints that could result in an unwanted distraction from Ukraine and is engaging in proactive diplomacy in a bid to ease tensions in the region that have been rising gradually in recent years.

Although not significant on its own, Blinken’s tour may nevertheless put into motion developments that stand to impact the current geopolitical state of affairs in North Africa.

What Happened?

The US Secretary of State held visits to Morocco on 29^th March, and to Algeria on 30^th and 31^st March. Both visits took place after Blinken concluded a visit to Israel where he was joined by diplomats from the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain and Egypt.

In Morocco, Blinken met Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch and Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, with the agenda seemingly focusing on the status of the disputed region of Western Sahara. Morocco claims sovereignty over the region, while Algeria supports the pro-Independence Polisario Front, a nationalist movement that has laid claim to Western Sahara. Although the conflict – the longest running such dispute in the African continent – had long been stagnant, tensions erupted in 2019. The situation was further upended by the Trump administration in 2020, which recognised the entirety of Western Sahara as part of Morocco in return for the kingdom agreeing to normalise its ties with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords. The Biden Administration has notably kept Trump’s policy in Western Sahara, with Blinken focusing instead on creating a workable framework for autonomy for the region. In a readout of the talks, Blinken described the plan as “serious, credible and realistic”. In addition to Moroccan officials, Blinken also met the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and the de-facto ruler of the UAE, Mohammed bin Zayed (often dubbed MBZ).

During Blinken’s subsequent visit to Algeria, he met Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. The two sides discussed the possibilities of reopening a natural gas pipeline to Europe. The pipeline, which runs through Morocco and was shut down in 2021 following tensions between Algiers and Rabat, was touted as a potential solution to Europe’s needs to divest from Russian oil and gas. Blinken also encouraged Algiers to join the Abraham Accords, promising “real, practical benefits for the people in the countries”.

What Does Blinken’s Tour Tell About Washington’s Priorities?

Blinken’s tour may appear wholly disconnected from the on-going war between Ukraine and Russia that continues to grab international attention. However, the visit is nevertheless telling of Washington’s priorities amidst the on-going crisis, as well as the opportunities it eyes. In particular, the upheaval appears to have opened possibilities for Washington to re-shore its international partnerships while looking to pull in more neutral countries like Algeria.

Nowhere is this dynamic better visible than the developments around the UAE, which abstained from the United Nations Security Council vote condemning Russia. The decision to abstain was widely seen as an indicator of the UAE’s displeasure towards Washington’s muted response to the recent attacks by Yemen’s Houthi Movement towards the Kingdom. Blinken’s meeting with MBZ, however, was reportedly cordial, with the Secretary of State specifically referencing the “terrorist attacks against the UAE” by the Houthis.

A similar dynamic is at play with Morocco, which was one of the few countries to not vote at all (distinct from abstaining) in a recent UN General Assembly vote to condemn Russia’s actions. Although Washington’s recognition of Western Sahara as Moroccan territory in 2020 eased some of the tensions between the two countries, a number of disagreements over the status of the territory remained. The period of chill saw bilateral trade between Morocco and Russia grow substantially. These trade ties include imports of Russian mineral, chemical and energy exports that amount of over a billion dollar annually and are necessary for Morocco’s industrial capacities. Russian companies have recently increased their activities in Morocco, extending to projects including nuclear energy development. By taking a more proactive stance on Western Sahara, it is possible that Blinken sought to placate Moroccan leaders similar to the gestures offered to the UAE.

In Algeria, however, Blinken had different priorities. The country has been a long-standing Russian partner. Russia is Algeria’s main source of arms, with the country being Russia’s third largest buyer of weaponry. Substantial contracts also exist between Algeria’s national oil company Sonatrach and Russia’s Gazprom and Lukoil. However, in recent years, chronically-low oil prices and loss of access to markets such as Spain has hampered the Algerian economy. The economic malaise resulted in domestic instability in the form of the Hirak protests in 2019.

Despite the internal and external pressures it faces, however, Algiers has traditionally avoided entanglement with other countries’ affairs and has notably abstained from the UNGA vote to condemn Russia’s action in Ukraine. In this sense, Algeria’s view of the situation seems to resemble that of Russian partners in Central Asia who have nevertheless held their distance from Moscow over Ukraine and have even permitted limited forms of public displays in opposition to Russian actions.

With global oil prices running higher due to the war and Russia’s future as a reliable partner in question it is possible that Washington has seen an opening to draw Algeria closer into its orbit by offering the country political dividends from accepting the Abraham Accords while tempting Algiers to reopen the pipeline to Spain to reap economic dividends. For its part, Algiers appears to be conscious of economic opportunities the war presents: A number of planned subsidy cuts that could have resulted in widespread protests have been cancelled since the conflict drove oil prices up. It is apparent that Algiers’ leaders are viewing the situation as an opportunity to reduce the country’s economic pressures. And this, in turn, offers Washington an opening while simultaneously giving Europe an option to divest from Russian oil.

In getting proactively involved with North Africa and attempting to mediate between Morocco and Algeria, Blinken likely also hoped to pre-empt a possible flashpoint in the region that could result in an unwanted foreign policy distraction. Given the recent rise in tensions between Morocco and Algeria, as well as domestic instability within Algeria itself, any local crisis could easily escalate into a regional one.

Overall, Washington’s strategy in North Africa resembles how it achieved a semblance of European unity in the opening days of the war in Ukraine: Framing the upheaval as an opportunity to take radical new action. Meanwhile, through prospective options for cooperation such as reopening the fuel pipeline between Algeria and Spain through Morocco, it seems that Washington is trying to foster some trust and common ground between the two rivals.

Blinken’s visit was not a landmark moment in Washington’s relations with Northern African countries. However, the visit nevertheless put to motion several important developments, such as around Western Sahara and within the context of Moroccan-Algerian rivalry. Should these developments be sustained, the geopolitical terrain of North Africa may nevertheless witness significant changes in the coming years.