Over the course of August 2021, the Taliban in Afghanistan has managed to wrestle control of almost the whole country and has since established a government[1].

Through it all, the group has projected an image of unity and exclusivity, with the new government made up entirely of Taliban members and almost exclusively of Pashtun backgrounds, running counter to previous promises of inclusivity[2].

Despite the image of unity, however, the Taliban is experiencing fissures that could be capitalised on by other groups, even those that it counts among its partners.

This article will outline the positions of various militant groups active both inside and outside Afghanistan that could pose a range of challenges for the Taliban establishment that is seeking to consolidate both internal and external political legitimacy. In doing so, it will examine the opportunities they may seize and the risks they may pose to the Taliban, as well as the insurgency landscape in Afghanistan as a whole.

Domestically, the authors have identified three major factions of significance:

• The Haqqani Network,
• Al-Qaeda,
• Islamic State Khorasan (ISK).

The Haqqani Network and al-Qaeda have largely been on the same terms when it has come to the use of violence in achieving their aims. They adopted hard line stances when it came to peace talks with the US and have not been shy to derail attempts at dialogue. They will nevertheless seek to consolidate Taliban rule in Afghanistan and, thus, fortify the country as a safe haven for their presence and operations there. The ISK, on the other hand, will seek to destabilise Taliban rule and continue its efforts to poach militants from the Taliban and other jihadist groups present in Afghanistan. The Haqqani Network and al-Qaeda will likely coordinate operations to crack down on the ISK.

However, groups domestic to Afghanistan – relatively speaking – will not be the only concern as far as militancy in Afghanistan goes. Many observers expressed fears that the country could become, once again, a hub of transnational jihadism. While Taliban itself professes to focus purely on Afghanistan – with a preference for the Pashtun people – the presence of the Haqqani Network and the wider al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan nevertheless raises the prospects of non-Afghan militant groups taking shelter in the country, especially following the appointment of many Haqqani-linked individuals to government positions.

Four key groups have been identified as risk factors for foreign militancy:

• Anti-India Groups (Such as Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba),
• Uyghur Groups,
• Syria-Based Jihadi Groups,
• Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan/Pakistani Taliban (TTP).

There is a possibility that such groups may pose a risk even if they are clamped down by the Taliban. The bombing at the Hamid Karzai Airport in August 2021 that killed at least 170 civilians raises the question of whether the Taliban has the capacity to clamp down on violent extremist groups. After all, the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan will likely offer an enabling environment for jihadis as a whole, even for Taliban’s enemies such as the ISK which claimed the airport bombing.

Such risks are evident in Syria where militants associated with the Islamic State (IS) were found in the territories ruled by rival jihadi groups. Indeed, the IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi himself was killed in Idlib which is controlled by Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)[3], the biggest local rival of the IS. In Afghanistan itself, groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Jamaat Ansarullah have regularly been able to operate in regions like Badakhshan, Kunar and Nuristan where even the Taliban struggled to establish authority in the past[4]. With the Taliban itself still consolidating control around the Afghanistan, there will be plenty of blind spots for transnational groups to establish networks and operate under the radar.

Ultimately, however, the Taliban’s response to such groups will depend on their links and allegiances, with groups enjoying closer ties to al-Qaeda or the Haqqani Network receiving more passes. Such responses will be, however, tempered by the group’s own country-wide objectives, including greater international recognition and reconstruction. Many groups also run the risk of acting as spoilers for the Taliban’s relations with regional powers.

Domestic Factions

The Haqqani Network

The Haqqani Network sees itself as part of the Taliban[5]. However, it is known to consist of more hard-line elements that have at times expressed dissatisfaction with more “lenient” elements of the group. A significant proportion of the terrorist attacks committed in Afghanistan in the name of the Taliban have been organised and implemented by the Haqqani Network.

Since the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, the current head of the Haqqani Network, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is wanted by the US, with a $10 million FBI bounty[6], has been appointed Minister of Interior Affairs[7]. Even after being adopted by the core leadership, Sirajuddin Haqqani continued to espouse a more hard-line stance, as demonstrated in his position on the US-Afghan peace talks, which he said must be held in accordance with Islamic Sharia[8]. Another member of the Haqqani network to join the government is Khalil ur-Rehman Haqqani, who was appointed Minister of Refugees[9].

Nevertheless, the formation of this Taliban government did not come about without any infighting. Reports came out over a week ago about a spate of shootings in Kabul and Jalalabad between supporters of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Sirajuddin Haqqani. The shootings took place at the time of the governmental appointments and so it is assumed that both candidates were vying for the chance to be the right-hand man of acting Prime MInister Hibatullah[10]. Mullah Baradar, who is known to be the closest to Akhundzada, was eventually chosen as acting Deputy Prime Minister. Later on, a brawl was reported from the presidential palace on 15^th September between the Mullah Baradar and Haqqani factions[11].

The close relationship between the Haqqani Network and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has been frequently reported[12]. This relationship provides the ISI with a channel into Afghanistan and it consequently has an influence on developments in the country. The make-up of the interim Taliban government shows clear signs of this influence, with several members enjoying close ties with Pakistan[13]. The eagerness of the Afghan Taliban to control its affairs without a domineering external force interfering is bound to lead to rifts with the Haqqani Network and its prized relationship with the ISI, as was witnessed in the abovementioned skirmishes between supporters of Mullah Baradar and Sirajaddin Haqqani. Incidentally, Mullah Baradar was arrested by Pakistan for pursuing dialogue with the Karzai regime in 2010[14]. Pakistan’s influence especially on the Haqqani Network is thus a thorn in the side of the Taliban regime.

In addition, the Haqqani Network is primarily responsible for acting as the intermediary between the Taliban and foreign-based groups/allies, including Al-Qaeda, TTP, JeM, Lakshar-e-Taiba, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan[15]. The degree of leverage that the Haqqani Network has over these foreign-based groups and the way in which the core Taliban leadership manages its relations with the Haqqani Network will determine the level of control the Taliban will have over military developments within Afghanistan.

In particular, the ability of the Haqqani Network to cause disruptions will certainly keep the core Taliban leadership on its toes. However, the core Taliban leadership and Haqqani Network are dependent on each other, with the former possessing political/ideological expertise while the latter possesses military power. They may both seek to stabilise relations for mutual benefit. The recent brawl in the president palace, nevertheless, indicates that this is not the case for the moment.

Al-Qaeda

While the Haqqani Network is an integrated part of the Taliban, Al-Qaeda is a separate group that enjoys close ties with the Taliban, especially through the Haqqani Network[16]. The close relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda has been demonstrated on numerous occasions, not least the celebration of the former’s victory in Afghanistan by the latter[17]. Al-Qaeda has a long history of cooperation with the Taliban, based on the pledges of alliance (bay’ah) made by high-ranking Al-Qaeda leaders, including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, to the Taliban[18].

Nevertheless, the Doha Agreement signed by the US and Taliban in February 2020 somewhat problematized the latter’s relationship with Al-Qaeda. The agreement stipulates that the Taliban “will not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including al-Qa’ida, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies”[19]. Although this does not mean that the Taliban is obligated to remove Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan, it has promised to curtail the latter’s activities when it comes to global jihad.

The Taliban have largely framed their goals in recent times in national terms and the group is seeking to gain legitimacy from regional powers by shying away from their connections with global jihadist groups[20]. However, years of cooperation and alliance building between the two groups are unlikely to be hampered by the Doha Agreement or the dynamics of regional geopolitics[21]. The composition of the transitional government, which consists of internationally wanted and sanctioned individuals, demonstrates that for the time being the Taliban is more eager to consolidate its rule in Afghanistan through its organisational and tribal alliances rather than to appease international actors[22]. It is more likely that the two groups will formulate a new modus vivendi wherein the Taliban will continue to provide a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and affiliated groups on the condition that they in turn respect the Taliban’s attempts at gaining international recognition by avoiding provocation of regional and global superpowers.

Islamic State Khorasan (ISK)

The ISK is officially a regional affiliate of the IS[23] and it harbours a complicated and generally antagonistic relationship with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The group was founded in 2015, when the IS’ power in Iraq and Syria was at its peak, by former members of the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban as well as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan[24]. The ISK’s position, as a group that was dedicated to global jihad, rejected the more compromising stances of the Taliban, who were holding talks with Western powers, as well as the Taliban’s aim to restrict their activities to the national boundaries of Afghanistan. Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the spokesman of former IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, even accused the Taliban of collaborating with the Iranian government[25]. ISK thus managed to allure several disenchanted members of the Taliban to join their cause.

The ISK’s recruitment of Taliban fighters has caused the animosity between the two groups to reach new heights[26]. The Taliban’s animosity towards the ISK reached a level where the former would tolerate, or even condone, American airstrikes on the latter[27]. As the Taliban was beginning to consolidate its power within Afghanistan, the ISK immediately reacted with violence and conducted the deadly bombing at Kabul airport on 26^th August[28].

Military clashes between the Taliban and ISK are reported to be at their worst in areas where Taliban-affiliated leaders switched sides to join the ISK[29]. The Taliban will thus be extremely cautious even with its own members due to the risk of defection. Defection not only leads to a loss of military strength but it adds the risk of leaking information away to an adversary.

The Taliban will also remain wary of any potential cooperation with intelligence services of other countries with the objective of uprooting the ISK from Afghanistan. Such an approach may further alienate more hard-line members of the Taliban and push them towards the embrace of the ISK. It is also worth mentioning that the ISK have attracted defectors not only from the Afghan Taliban but also other regional jihadist groups, including Lashkar-e Taiba, Jamaat ud-Dawa, TTP and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan[30].

In any case, the ISK has lost ground to the Taliban in recent times and it has failed to retain many of the territories that were under its control, most notably in Nangarhar province, in the east of Afghanistan. The ISK presence in Afghanistan, largely in the form of sleeper cells, will continue to concern the Taliban. Regional states will also be interested in uprooting the ISK from Afghanistan. However, the Taliban have a tight rope to walk across as the risk of defections continues to loom large.

Foreign Factions

Anti-India Groups

India is widely seen as the loser in the recent developments in Afghanistan. New Delhi had close ties with the now-deposed government in Kabul and it has, so far, not been successful in making diplomatic overtures to the Taliban on the same calibre as Russia or China[31]. Conversely, the Taliban is widely seen as having had Islamabad’s tacit backing. The perception that Pakistan was the winner is fuelled by the appointment of Pakistan-friendly figures in the new Taliban-led government[32]. With Pakistan already experiencing renewed and increasingly violent tensions with India, analysts were quick to posit that Afghanistan would become home to anti-Indian and especially Kashmiri groups like JeM and Lashkar-e-Taiba[33].

There is precedent for such a development. Such groups were highly active in Afghanistan in the 1990s and partook in several major attacks in India or on Indian interests, sometimes with the direct backing of the Taliban[34]. JeM, in particular, continues to be a major threat and has launched violent attacks in Kashmir as recently as 2019[35]. While the Taliban is looking to avoid the perception of being a Pakistani proxy[36], the anti-India track may remain a viable way for the two sides to retain leverage on each other. Such a process may even be aided – or at least facilitated – by al-Qaeda which already called for the “liberation” of Kashmir, Palestine, Maghreb (Northwest Africa) from the “clutches of the enemies of Islam”[37].

It remains to be seen how other regional powers will have a say in this. The greatest unknown will be China which has expressively demanded that the Taliban cut ties with terrorism due to Beijing’s sensitivity to a Uyghur insurgency. It is possible that Kabul and Islamabad may bank on Beijing’s own increasingly tense ties with New Delhi for Chinese officials to look the other way. However, given that Chinese officials are deeply concerned about instability and proxy activity in Afghanistan[38], their tolerance for a proxy insurgency, even one that targets a rival, may be very limited.

Uyghur Groups

The conduct and approach of the Chinese government vis-à-vis the Taliban showed remarkable parallels between the 1990s and 2021. In both instances Beijing opened diplomatic relations with the Taliban with the express intent of preventing Afghanistan from being used as a base for a Uyghur insurgency that could operate in the neighbouring Xinjiang Province in western China[39]. Beyond the Uyghur concerns, Beijing today is also conscious about instability in Afghanistan, both for its own reasons but also for the fact that chronic instability resulted in severe financial losses for Chinese companies engaged in mining and other extractive industries[40].

With Afghanistan’s status as a “Graveyard of conquerors” playing in Beijing’s mind, Chinese officials have been content to offer financial opportunities and other incentives to the Taliban in return for “a clean break with all terrorist groups and live in good terms with other countries, especially [their] neighbours,” as stated by the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi. Chinese officials also leveraged their partnership with Pakistan to help build stronger ties with the new government in Kabul.

Prior to the Taliban’s capture of Kabul, the mood among Afghanistan’s some 2,000 Uyghurs was grim, with many concerned that the Taliban would help China restrict Uyghur activities[41]. Such fears have come to pass as the Taliban responded positively to Beijing’s requests. While not justifying the repression of the Uyghurs in China, they nevertheless noted they have no right to interfere in China’s internal affairs[42]. Subsequently, Taliban told Chinese officials that members of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the Uyghur group most commonly cited as a threat to Beijing, has left the country, though offered no evidence of that, nor said anything about where the group went[43].

There is the possibility that the Taliban officials were truthful in their stated intent to prevent a Uyghur insurgency. After all, Afghanistan did not become a hub for Uyghur insurgency under the Taliban rule of the 1990s. The Taliban also likely consider that cooperation with China will bring more dividends than harbouring Uyghurs would. However, there remains the question of whether the group is capable of clamping down on the Uyghurs. As highlighted above, there are several parts of the country including Badakhshan, Kunar and Nuristan where non-Taliban Afghan groups have managed to operate. Badakhshan, in particular, is a region that geographically extends into Xinjiang (through Tashkurgan county) and may prove appealing for Uyghur insurgents as a base.

There is also the question of how al-Qaeda views the Uyghur matter. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) declared ETIM a terrorist entity due to alleged links to al-Qaeda[44]. Indeed, Uyghur foreign militants in Syria frequently fought under al-Qaeda-linked formations including Jabhat al-Nusra (the predecessor of the HTS)[45]. However, Uyghurs were conspicuously missing in al-Qaeda’s congratulations to the Taliban which also included calls for rebellions in a number of theatres including Kashmir and Palestine[46], leaving their exact position unclear. It is possible that the group may offer some covert support and shelter to Uyghurs, if nothing but to prevent them from being recruited by enemies such as the ISK who can then act as a spoiler for Beijing-Kabul relations. Any such covert shelter and support, however, will likely be limited and bound by conditionalities to prevent a Chinese blowback.

Syria-Based Jihadi Groups

In early September 2021, reports emerged on Twitter that many foreign jihadi militants in the Opposition-controlled parts of Idlib in Syria expressed a desire to travel to Afghanistan[47]. These news represent a significant development in the outflow of fighters from Syria which have, so far, happened only in limited capacities and under Turkish or Russian auspices[48].

One reason for this is that the HTS, which rules Idlib, recently started clamping down on Chechen and Uzbek factions present in the region in a bid to present itself as a legitimate Syrian actor.

Some of these groups disbanded and laid down arms while others ended up in clashes with the HTS[49]. However, with the conflict in Syria becoming increasingly frozen, it is also likely that many militants who arrived in Syria to wage jihad may look to other theatres. For such militants, Afghanistan likely presents a land of opportunity.

The question is whether the Taliban will welcome such militants. While the group likely could use new fighters as it tries to establish control over the country, it is, like the HTS, focusing on an increasingly national agenda. Thus, an influx of foreign fighters with little familiarity of Afghanistan and Pashtun culture could result in tensions it would rather avoid.

With many foreign militants in Idlib already boasting contacts with al-Qaeda, it is likelier that such militants will be welcomed and sheltered by al-Qaeda or the Haqqani Network. However, such militants will have their own agenda, especially with regards to taking the fight to Russia and its allies. Chechens, especially, may desire to take the fight to Russian interests, which could hamper the Taliban’s efforts to build cordial relations with Moscow and, potentially, Beijing.

Should conflict over such foreign militants arise, the ISK may also earn dividends by poaching any disillusioned fighters through the promise of waging “true jihad”. Others, meanwhile, may just seek to take advantage of the vacuum in the country to establish bases in the Taliban’s blind spots, testing the Taliban’s promise to prevent the country from being used as a launchpad for attacks.

Ultimately, far from aiding the Taliban, such militants could end up as a poisoned chalice for Kabul.

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan/Pakistani Taliban (TTP)

Formed in 2007, the TTP is the most active armed opposition group in Pakistan. Ideologically-aligned with the Afghan Taliban, the group is made up almost entirely of Pashtuns[50] and has been fighting the Pakistani government due to the repression carried out on the Pakistani Pashtuns[51]. Until 2018, the group was severely fragmented, suffering leadership crises and defections to the ISK. However, since 2020, the group has resurged, with August 2021 seeing the highest number of attacks[52].

Relations between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP are complicated and have traditionally been strained due to the Afghan Taliban’s closer ties with Islamabad[53]. However, the TTP is known to have sympathy among the Afghan public while the Afghan Taliban’s rank-and-file are known to be distrusting of Islamabad[54].

Although the new government in Afghanistan is relatively Pakistan-friendly, the Taliban has nevertheless shown signs of growing independence from Islamabad. The group resisted some of Pakistan’s security-related demands even as it has reached out to the TTP, describing relations between the two groups as friendly[55].

For his part, the new TTP leader, Noor Wali Mehsud, has renewed his oath of allegiance to the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan[56]. Mehsud has also deepened his cooperation with al-Qaeda and moved away from ISK-type violent tactics[57]. Further signs of integration of the TTP with the Afghan factions came when the TTP moved most of its forces away from eastern Afghanistan to the territories of the Haqqani Network in the southeast[58].

It is possible that Islamabad is banking on the TTP’s growing ties with Kabul in order to build leverage over the group and is engaged in backchannel mediation to this end.

However, it is likelier that the TTP itself is engaged in mediations to ingratiate itself with Afghan factions while riding the sympathy of the Afghan public to prevent the kind of clampdowns that could target Uyghurs, Chechens or others. In the medium-to-long term, this can strain Kabul’s ties with Islamabad. Although Islamabad will demand the Taliban to clamp down on the TTP, the Taliban may be hard pressed to do so without risking significant backlash and the added perception of being Pakistan’s puppet. Such balancing act on the Afghan Taliban’s part may give the TTP just enough room to ramp up its insurgency in Pakistan.

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/7/taliban-announce-acting-ministers-of-new-government

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/4/afghanistan-mullah-baradar-promises-an-inclusive-government

[3] https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/al-baghdadi-killed-idlib-hotbed-terror-groups-foreign-fighters

[4] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/08/syrias-foreign-jihadis-eye-afghanistan-new-challenges-arise-moscow

[5] https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/taliban-the-next-generation/

[6] https://per.euronews.com/2021/09/08/fbi-doubled-reward-for-arresting-taliban-interior-minister

[7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58479750

[8] https://tribune.com.pk/story/1123156/rare-audio-message-taliban-open-talks-sharia

[9] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/7/taliban-announce-acting-ministers-of-new-government

[10] https://www.baharnews.ir/news/292054/%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D8%A8%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%AD%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C

[11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58560923

[12] https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/publications/PF23_WeinbaumBabbar_Haqqani_web_0.pdf

[13] https://www.mei.edu/publications/pakistani-stamp-taliban-cabinet

[14] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-qa-idUSTRE62A1H920100311

[15] https://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/print_view/363

[16] https://www.undocs.org/S/2021/486

[17] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/13/taliban-victory-afghanistan-al-qaeda-victory-911/

[18] Ibid.

[19] https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

[20] https://www.integrityuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Responses-to-the-Taliban-A-Regional-Overview-Integrity-UK.pdf

[21] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-the-taliban-will-allow-al-qaeda-to-stay-in-afghanistan-49611

[22] https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/the-focus-of-the-talebans-new-government-internal-cohesion-external-dominance/

[23] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-5833353

[24] https://theconversation.com/what-is-isis-k-two-terrorism-experts-on-the-group-behind-the-deadly-kabul-airport-attack-and-its-rivalry-with-the-taliban-166873

[25] https://public-assets.extrac.io/reports/ExTrac_ISKP_0920.pdf

[26] https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/evolving-taliban-isk-rivalry

[27] https://theconversation.com/what-is-isis-k-two-terrorism-experts-on-the-group-behind-the-deadly-kabul-airport-attack-and-its-rivalry-with-the-taliban-166873

[28] https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/isis-k-who-taliban-afghanistan-b1912302.html

[29] https://ctc.usma.edu/challenging-isk-brand-afghanistan-pakistan-rivalries-divided-loyalties/

[30] Ibid.

[31] https://www.integrityuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Responses-to-the-Taliban-A-Regional-Overview-Integrity-UK.pdf

[32] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/12/pakistan-might-soon-regret-its-win-in-afghanistan/

[33] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/17/afghanistan-taliban-takeover-india-security-terrorism/

[34] Ibid.

[35] https://www.thehindu.com/topic/pulwama-attack-2019/

[36] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/12/pakistan-might-soon-regret-its-win-in-afghanistan/

[37] https://theprint.in/world/liberate-kashmir-al-qaeda-tells-taliban-but-is-silent-on-uyghur-muslims-in-chinas-xinjiang/725835/

[38] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-09-13/chinas-afghanistan-dilemma

[39] https://www.integrityuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Responses-to-the-Taliban-A-Regional-Overview-Integrity-UK.pdf

[40] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-09-13/chinas-afghanistan-dilemma

[41] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58342790

[42] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/21/china-taliban-afghanistan-biden-troop-withdrawal-belt-road-geopolitics-strategy/

[43] https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/uyghur-militants-of-etim-left-afghanistan-taliban-assure-china-101631285918334.html

[44] https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1267/aq_sanctions_list/summaries/entity/eastern-turkistan-islamic-movement

[45] https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-counter-terrorism-calculus/

[46] https://theprint.in/world/liberate-kashmir-al-qaeda-tells-taliban-but-is-silent-on-uyghur-muslims-in-chinas-xinjiang/725835/

[47] https://twitter.com/ToreRHamming/status/1433006858059624449

[48] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210527-syrian-mercenaries-robbed-of-their-wages-report

[49] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/08/syrias-foreign-jihadis-eye-afghanistan-new-challenges-arise-moscow

[50] https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/resurgence-tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan

[51] Ibid.

[52] https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1433298997284904962

[53] https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/resurgence-tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan

[54] Ibid.

[55] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/12/pakistan-might-soon-regret-its-win-in-afghanistan/

[56] https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/08/pakistani-talibans-emir-renews-allegiance-to-afghan-taliban.php

[57] https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/resurgence-tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan

[58] Ibid.

Using the Syrian resettlement programme from the mid-2010s as a template, the UK government launched an Afghan resettlement scheme intending to house and integrate an estimated 15,000 Afghans who have been evacuated so far. To this end, the UK government is working with charities and local councils to smoothen the process.

However, the scheme is already attracting backlash from the British right, especially the far-right. Many of the criticisms and narratives around Afghans in this context resemble those about the Syrians during the refugee crisis between 2014 and 2016. There is now a risk that the Afghan crisis could reinvigorate the far-right groups similar to how the Syrian refugee crisis reinvigorated them, allowing them to take their politics further mainstream.

This paper makes a comparative analysis between the Syrian and Afghan refugee crises. In doing so, it looks at the far-right narratives between the two crises, highlighting the similarities and differences.

The author notes that far-right narratives tend to come pre-packaged, following similar patterns and allegations with each refugee or migration crisis. These are then moulded around actual developments on the ground to further the far-right agenda. As such, this paper recommends that the UK government remain alert and responsive to any development that can be capitalised on by the far-right, including petty crimes with no terrorism links or political motives.

This paper also recommends that the UK government cooperates with Afghan organisations already present in the country to ensure accurate assessment of demands and needs, as well as better understand the difficulties the new arrivals face in order to formulate more effective responses. This will reduce the chances of individuals falling through the cracks in the system.

Background

Over the summer of 2021, Afghanistan witnessed a severe shift in fortunes. In the aftermath of the United States proceeding with the withdrawal of its forces, the Taliban made rapid gains across the country, systematically capturing provincial capitals across the country, culminating in the capture of Kabul City on August 15^th.

One of the most enduring questions of the Coalition presence over the past 20 years was about the fates of the Afghans who sided with the Coalition (or against the Taliban) and have earned the group’s enmity. For many officials in the West, ensuring that their local allies were not targeted by the Taliban was a pressing concern.

Thus, the daunting scenes of Afghans – many of whom feared such Taliban retribution – clamouring to leave the country and the resulting chaos at the Hamid Karzai Airport was emblematic of such fears. The rapid Taliban victory forced many countries, including the United Kingdom, to scramble their resources in a bid to evacuate as many people as they can.

As of early September 2021, it is estimated that the UK evacuated about 15,000 Afghans, with many of them due to be settled in the UK[1]. Dubbed ‘Operation Warm Welcome’, the resettlement initiative is modelled after the Syrian Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme which was launched in 2014[2]. Across the UK, more than 100 councils have agreed to take Afghan refugees, with councils being offered grants to buy homes for larger families[3].

As part of the relocation scheme, the Afghan arrivals will be offered;

• Indefinite leave to remain, including the right to work immediately and the option to apply for British citizenship.
• The right to send their children to school right away.
• Access to a new portal where members of the public will be able to share offers of housing, work and donations.
• Access to NHS services and GP registration.
• Help with getting a national insurance number and finding accommodation.
• Immediate COVID-19 Vaccination[4].

It is expected the whole process could cost as much as £2.5billion, with many local councils likely to require additional funding to cope with the situation[5].

Reactions from the Public, British Right and the Far-Right

Overall, the mood regarding the situation has been cautious. The government has emphasised the need for giving a “warm welcome”, with mainstream right-wing media outlets like the Daily Mail emphasising the status of these individuals as “allies”[6], likely in an attempt to blunt criticism towards Boris Johnson’s Conservative government[7].

However, reactions in the public have been more mixed. While a very significant majority of the public does not see the crisis as being Boris Johnson’s fault[8], there is nevertheless some trepidation over how Downing Street will respond to the crisis. Already experiencing a severe economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic and ancillary impacts from Brexit, members of the public on social media expressed concerns about Afghan refugees being given homes even as the country continues to grapple with a housing crisis[9].

Others highlighted the apparent contradictions between the government’s anti-migrant stance with accepting refugees[10].

While such grievances themselves are not far-right talking points themselves, they do cover issues the far-right tends to capitalise on. Oftentimes, such narratives will then be joined into the dehumanising narratives about Afghans (or Muslims, or other foreigners) themselves.

For instance, posting on its Telegram channel, the far-right group Patriotic Alternative accused the Conservatives of being “traitors” for accepting refugees despite their claims that they want to prevent immigration, presenting themselves as the “Alternative”[11].

Similarly, Britain First’s Telegram channel capitalised on the housing crisis, with a sarcastic remark that Britain “is a massive country and [it has] plenty of room[12]. Britain First, alongside the former founder of the English Defence League, Tommy Robinson, also attacked the men who have arrived for not fighting the Taliban[13].

Other, more fringe groups, like Resistance England, opted for downright conspiracies, claiming that all the 25,000 Afghans due to arrive in the UK are men. The group’s statement claimed that they had left their families behind despite plenty of evidence in the media to the contrary[14].

Meanwhile, former UKIP and Brexit Party leader, Nigel Farage, stoked fears that the arrivals could harbour potential terrorists as well as encourage the arrival of economic migrants from other countries[15].

Comparisons to the Syrian Refugee Crisis

There are many different dynamics between the Syrian and Afghan refugee crises. However, especially in the domestic UK context, parallels can be drawn easily. This is evidenced by the fact that the Syrian refugee resettlement scheme has been reactivated.

Indeed, when one compares the narratives of the far-right between the Syrian and Afghan crises, one can see many parallels.

For example, Nigel Farage’s claims about the arrivals harbouring potential terrorists is a rehash of his claims about the Syrians refugees in 2016. Back then, Farage claimed that the refugees could include terrorists belonging to the Islamic State (IS)[16]. In warning about potential security risks, however, Farage took to dehumanising refugees as a whole, using the issue as a rallying point to support the then-ongoing Brexit campaign[17]. Indeed, Farage’s claim back then that the refugees consisted predominantly of men reflects Resistance England’s claims of a similar nature today.

Other alarmist parallels can also be drawn. Responding to the arrival of the Afghan refugees, the far-right group, For Britain, claimed that Muslims would bring Sharia law into the country and that Muslims would rape European women, describing the situation as “hell on Earth”[18]. Such descriptions harken back to the words of politicians across Europe in 2015 wherein they warned of “swarms” of refugees, citing their Muslim religion as a reason to deny them entry[19] or when members of far-right groups rioted in Dover against “third world scum”[20].

Such narratives are typical of the far-right. Indeed, narratives of a similar nature crop up periodically whenever there is instability in a Muslim-majority country with access to Europe, as was seen during the Libyan refugee crisis[21]. This highlights that far-right ideologues don’t so much form their narratives around real events, but rather formulate their narratives to fit them around real events.

This explains why anti-refugee sentiments in Europe and the rest of the West did not become mainstream until several high-profile incidents. For example, the German Eurosceptic and anti-refugee party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) did not surge in support until after the incidents in Cologne in the New Year of 2016 during which numerous women were attacked, allegedly by refugees[22]. The events then were seen as a watershed moment for Germany’s open-door policy and they were followed by not only a drop in refugee acceptance in Germany[23], but also numerous vigilante attacks on uninvolved individuals.

Such shifts had further effects around Europe, including the UK, where a 15-year-old Syrian refugee was racially assaulted by a British boy[24].

During such incidents, far-right figures such as Tommy Robinson stoked the flames by posting unsubstantiated and downright fake information about the Syrian boy[25]. Similar unsubstantiated claims about refugees also erupted in the aftermath of criminal incidents involving refugees, whether it was real or supposed. In the German town of Chemnitz, allegations of a shopkeeper’s murderer being a refugee were enough for the far-right to exploit the incident and stage a protest that descended into violent rioting[26].

Implications and Recommendations

The fact that the far-right does not react to real developments, but rather pre-packages its narratives, which it then moulds to developments on the ground, is significant and may hold the key to the UK government avoiding a far-right backlash to its Afghan refugee policy.

In particular, the far-right narratives at present appear to be purely anticipatory, with little to no actual events to capitalise on. Thus, if work is done to prevent the occurrence of any dubious incidents involving Afghan refugees in the UK then we are likely to see a waning of the far-right’s focus on them. This work must involve an integration process that will provide the Afghan refugees with the means to socially and economically integrate into the local geographies across the country where they are being settled. As the experiences in Chemnitz show, crime relating to refugees, even petty crime with no political or terroristic motivations, can be explosive. Thus, ensuring that such refugees do not fall through the cracks of the social care system will be essential, especially amidst reports that some Afghan refugees are already struggling with the Home Office integration system, as well as access to essentials[27].

However, even in the absence of incidents that the far-right can capitalise on, there is a risk that members of far-right groups can engage in provocations such as the numerous incidents involving far-right ringleaders “raiding” hotels where suspected refugees and asylum seekers were housed[28]. While such tactics were not commonplace during the Syrian refugee crisis, they have become a favoured tactic by the far-right in the years since and could stoke tensions even further.

It is also recommended that local councils hosting the Afghan refugees hold welcome events that include members of the local community. Past experiences in Germany during the Syrian refugee crisis showed that direct interaction and exposure between the local community and the refugees can improve relations and reduce anti-refugee sentiments[29].

In addition, cooperation with the media to present the Afghan refugees in a positive light may yield fruitful results. Initial conversations with the refugees have shown that a large proportion of the men are ready and eager to start working and that they have brought with them skills from Afghanistan that have the potential to contribute to economic prosperity.

The fact that many of the arrivals consist of Afghans who have been cooperating with British personnel in Afghanistan can be highlighted in order to rebut claims made by the far-right that the refugees are intent on acting against British interests. Indeed, given that the far-right tends to lionise the armed forces, positive testaments about the Afghan arrivals from the members of the armed forces who worked with the Afghans could be of immense value in countering far-right narratives.

The fact that far-right figures like Tommy Robinson voiced support for the pension rights of the Gurkha soldiers[30] suggests there is room for some – albeit limited – acceptance for non-British individuals who have nevertheless helped the armed forces. While Robinson framed the rights of the Gurkhas as mutually exclusive with support for the Afghans, showing that both issues are on the same side of the fence could yield positive results.

Through it all, responding timely and effectively to public concerns about the crisis, as well as ensuring that the far-right cannot capitalise on any incidents that may take place in the UK or elsewhere will be vital towards preventing any flare-ups of tensions and violence.

___

[1] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9954421/Resettling-Afghan-refugees-cost-British-taxpayer-2-5billion.html

[2] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9921315/Councils-given-grants-rent-buy-family-homes-house-Afghan-evacuees-families.html

[3] Ibid.

[4] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9954421/Resettling-Afghan-refugees-cost-British-taxpayer-2-5billion.html

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

[7] https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16053161/dominic-raab-poll-afghanistan-crisis/

[8] Ibid.

[9]https://m.facebook.com/login.php?next=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2FTheIndependentOnline%2Fposts%2F10159662373451636&refsrc=deprecated&_rdr

[10] https://www.facebook.com/10downingstreet/posts/10159810298223453

[11] https://t.me/PatrioticAlternativeOfficial

[12] https://t.me/BritainFirst

[13] https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/uk-right-wing-angry-plans-resettle-afghan-refugees

[14] https://t.me/theresistanceengland

[15] https://www.thenational.scot/news/19517196.gb-news-nigel-farage-condemned-divisive-rhetoric-afghanistan-refugees/

[16] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/nigel-farage-defends-ukip-breaking-point-poster-queue-of-migrants

[17] Ibid.

[18] https://www.forbritain.uk/2021/08/22/sunday-column-afghan-refugees-will-bring-hell-on-earth

[19] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-crisis-far-right-s-rise-and-dehumanising-conflict-victims-are-greatest-barriers-joint-european-action-10492109.html

[20] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/fascist-anti-fascists-violent-clash-dover-immigration-refugee-demonstrations-a6843596.html

[21] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/01/refugee-crisis-europe-mediterranean-racism-incarceration

[22] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/germany-s-right-wing-afd-party-surges-new-high-concern-refugee-rises-a6810726.html

[23] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/cologne-attacks-support-refugees-germany-plummeting-amid-far-right-protests-and-vigilante-attacks-a6808616.html

[24] https://www.thesun.ie/news/3463696/teen-suspected-of-waterboarding-15-year-old-syrian-refugee-jamal-comes-from-a-family-with-convictions-for-far-right-offences/

[25] https://www.thesun.ie/news/3463696/teen-suspected-of-waterboarding-15-year-old-syrian-refugee-jamal-comes-from-a-family-with-convictions-for-far-right-offences/

[26] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/8/28/far-right-anti-fascists-clash-in-east-german-town-of-chemnitz

[27] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/afghan-refugees-toorhpaste-nappies-hotels-home-office-uk-b1915908.html

[28] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/asylum-seekers-housing-coronavirus-far-right-migrant-hotels-channel-crossing-a9687811.html

[29] https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/dice-report-2017-4-steinmayr-december.pdf

[30] https://tlgrm.eu/channels/@TommyRobinsonNews/23836